In her blog post on July 23, 2024, Heather Cox Richardson reported on the comments of an Ohio state senator following the stump speech by J.D. Vance after the Republican convention:

Media outlets gave more attention to the Ohio state senator who preceded Vance, George Lang, who began a chant of “fight, fight, fight” and told the audience: “I believe wholeheartedly Donald Trump and Butler County’s JD Vance are the last chance to save our country politically. I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country, and it will be saved.” 

While the senator apologized later for the civil war threat, does anyone think that Trump and his MAGA followers will quietly accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if Trump loses? Trump has already stated that he will accept the results only if he agrees with the outcome. Vance is echoing Trump’s remarks that the last election was stolen by the Democrats and that this will never be allowed to happen again. Even today after all the lawsuits regarding the 2020 election have failed to prove that the 2020 election was fraudulent, the percentage of Republicans who answer polls that it was stolen remains over 60 percent.

Good heavens! A strong majority of Republicans still believe this lie? How can this be? What are they smoking?

And civil war? Really? And a state senator said this?

We can’t let the threats from Trump discourage us. For the first time in at least a year, I am starting to feel better about the prospects of beating Donald Trump. With Kamala heading up the ticket, I believe we will win. Trump is now showing as many signs of aging and incoherency as Biden. Vance is not going to help with the undecided, the women voters, and the independents, who will ultimately determine who wins. 

But make no mistake: It is going to be brutal. Trump and Vance will pull every nasty trick out of their bag that they can including dog whistling aimed to put doubts that any woman of color is fit to run for the highest office. The attacks will be painful, personal, and unrelenting.

I also believe that they will try to play the dirty tricks that they have falsely been accusing the Democrats of and have probably already begun planning how to challenge the results if Trump loses. Consider this a Custer’s-Last-Stand moment for Trump and his MAGA fanatics.

Senator Lang’s threats are especially troubling. What happens if he is right? What happens if the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers try again but with a stronger force than in 2021? And this time, the insurrectionists have had more time to plan and organize. This is certainly an early warning signal that the election of 2024 may not be over when the vote counting concludes.  

So put on your combat armor and prepare for a brutal fight. But do not despair. Our country will come through this anticipated dark night of the soul and be stronger for it–and with hopes for a gentler, kinder, fairer, and more inclusive nation.   

 

Before you pop the champagne, keep in mind that the presidential election is still likely to be a cliffhanger. But still, we can now breathe a little easier. At least now we have a fighting chance.

First a word about Biden. He is getting much deserved praise from all corners of the Democratic Party. He has been one of the most effective American presidents in terms of legislation and perhaps the most effective one-term president ever.  He deserves the praise. His legacy is intact, and historians will be kind. He should have announced his decision to pass the torch about 18 months ago (as he said he would do when running in 2020 and as I had advised him to do), allowing a contested primary to happen showcasing the stars of the next generation, but better late then never. And it turns out that having the announcement follow the Republican convention was great timing. It has thrown the Republican Party into turmoil.

So, what’s next? I have been glued to the news channels starting around three on Sunday and most of Monday. (Ok, I fess up, mainly MSNBC). The consensus is that Kamala Harris will be the official Democratic presidential candidate. I am fine with that. She will destroy Trump if there is a debate. I believe she will be a strong candidate, will win, and be a good president. But that does not mean that she will have an easy time or that there will not be more surprises or nail biting moments. There is disagreement as I write this post as to whether an abbreviated, contested mini primary followed by an open convention would help or hurt. Some argue that it would toughen her up, hone her skills for communicating, and help her reach out to undecided voters. Others say that with the endorsements she already has—now including a strong one from Nancy Pelosi– and no one (now) willing to challenge her, she will win anyway, so why open up the possibility of a messy conflict within the Democratic Party? What we Democrats desperately need is unity.

And whom might she choose for a vice presidential candidate? Many are suggesting a tough white guy from a battleground state—like Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona or Governor Roy Cooper from North Carolina–or maybe Governor Andy Beshear from Kentucky, who has been able to triumph in a solid red state. All three look good to me, but there are many more strong possibilities—men and women– waiting in the wings.  Pennsylvania Governor, Josh Shapiro’s name seems to be coming up a lot. 

So buckle up. Here we go again. I do not need to remind anyone how high the stakes are or what would happen if Trump and Vance were to get elected. God help us.

Speaking of God, Trump asserts that it was God Almighty who directed him to turn away at the split microsecond that the bullet would have pierced his scull. Many of his hard core MAGA followers believe the same thing, some even believing that Trump is divine. Biden on the other hand stated publicly that only if God Almighty directed him to bow out would he withdraw from the race. Since Biden withdrew, presumably God weighed in.

Hmmm.

 

 

We find ourselves at a moment that will be in the history books for years to come. At his Pennsylvania rally on Sunday, Trump miraculously turned to the right as a sniper bullet whizzed past only nicking his ear. Many in his evangelical base swear this was an act of God and proof that God has chosen Trump to carry out God’s mission presumably “to make America great again.” Some followers go even farther proclaiming that this miraculous event shows that Trump is God’s special prophet, maybe like the Old Testament prophets or even Jesus. Meanwhile he has chosen JD Vance, a MAGA hardliner and a 2020 election denier, as his Vice President presumably to seal the deal with Trump’s white working class base. We don’t know yet whether Trump’s near death experience will nudge Trump more  toward the middle, soften his rough edges, or accelerate his fascist tendencies. But what we do know is the Republican Party is now unified as the Party of Trump and any similarities with the past GOP are left smoldering in the ashes.

What is in some ways just as frightening is what is happening to the Democrats. All the polls show now that Trump is ahead in the battleground states. For Biden to win he needs every Democratic vote he can get and every independent vote. He must carry most of the battleground states and hold the “Blue Wall.” Yet the party is now split about Biden’s candidacy. Unless the Democrats can come together around a unity candidate, the chances of beating Trump are at best slim and probably nil. The issue, of course, is whether Biden, who will turn 82 before the year is out, has the energy and acumen to carry the torch. Even as more elected officials and Democrat leaders are now urging Biden to pass the torch to a candidate who is younger and has more charisma, Biden is hunkering down, vowing he will never step down. He believes that he is the comeback kid who has proved in the past that he can win against all odds and will win again even if all the indicators now show otherwise. And he does not appear to understand the stakes.  He answered one of the questions by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in his prime time television interview that he will have no reservations or misgivings even if he loses to Trump if he can honestly say that he gave the campaign his best shot. No, Joe, wrong answer.

Biden is putting his ego and desire to stay in power above what is best for the nation. This is selfish and frankly unforgivable.

As matters now stand, it is hard to see how this movie is going to have a happy ending.

The main problem that I and many others have with Biden—who without doubt has been a good first term president—is that too often his communication skills have deteriorated to the point of not making sense. He slurs his words, speaks with hesitation, loses track of his thoughts and is painful to watch. While this was most pronounced during the disastrous debate, it now happens a lot of the time. I watched most of the NBC Lester Holt interview and snippets from the NAACP speech. The speech challenges and gaffs continue, maybe are even getting worse. This should disqualify anyone running for President of the United States. Nothing is more important than being able to communicate to the American people and to the world. Communication skills are critical in a leader. Sadly, Joe Biden has lost those skills. That is not necessarily his fault but rather one of aging’s cruel surprises. Now close to 75 percent of Democrats believe Biden is too old to run. People understand this. He is too old. More and more people are concluding that the emperor has no clothes (or in this case. no voice).

In a previous post, I suggested a come-to-Jesus meeting with the brain trust of the party. Yes, making a switch now is messy and not without risk but it is the only way that we stand a chance of beating Trump. It must happen and must happen very soon. There is no other viable option.

 

 

Well, there is nothing like an assassination or an attempted one that will get the attention of the American public. The question is what’s next. While there are many scenarios, let’s look at two which could be said to represent each end of a continuum— hope and despair.

Hope

After an exhaustive investigation, it turns out that the assassin had no obvious political motivation, was in fact a loyal Republican, and acted for personal reasons, mostly mysterious but probably related to mental illness and wanting attention. The attention of the nation turns more to gun control, addressing depression and mental illness, and keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous or disturbed people. Trump has his own come-to-Jesus moment, moderates his position on controversial issues, rejects the 2025 Heritage Foundation playbook, and moves more to the center. This could spell bad news for Democrats; but in moving more to the center, Trump loses a portion of his MAGA base, who now feel abandoned and deceived, and the election prospects remain in a virtual tie.  The Democrats come together and stick with Biden, who becomes the easiest choice given the divisions in the Democratic Party and the uncertainty of how to beat Trump-the-Martyr.

Biden reaches out to Trump, and the two for the first time are on speaking terms. Having Biden on the ticket, of course, is not such good news from my perspective for all the reasons in my last post, but that a new civility is happening is a good thing. For the first time the public has some breathing room as Trump says he is backing away from most of the 2025 radical initiatives. There is one more debate, which turns out to be more civil, focusing on policy issues. Biden does a much better job, and the two shake hands and two months later go into election night, hoping for a victory but realizing that should the voters choose the opponent, the country is not headed toward an existential crisis. Both candidates agree to accept the results. Moderation prevails as the two candidates morph into center left and center right candidates, remain on speaking terms. and advocate for what each considers best policies for the country. MAGAs sit on the sidelines and pout. Biden wins by a small margin. Think Obama versus McCain in 2008 or Obama versus Romney in 2012. Happy ending. The country breathes a long sigh of relief.

I know that some will argue that anyone who holds such a Pollyannish view should see a mental health professional immediately.

Despair

Trump, now Trump-the-Martyr, initially backs off from some of  the most extreme 2025 playbook initiatives but realizes he risks losing his MAGA base and finds moderation temperamentally impossible. He turns up the heat, accusing Biden of personally directing the attempted assassination. The internet is jammed with posts from supporters who claim to have definitive proof that Biden was behind the assassination attempt. The only reason that they do not demand that Biden step aside immediately is that they believe Biden will be the easiest to defeat. In order not to offend battleground state voters, Democrats pull the negative, most damning ads against Trump and are not able to come up with a replacement candidate for Biden that the various camps can agree on. The second debate is more one sided than the first. Yet by this time it is too late for the Democrats to make a change. Trump warns that he will never accept election results unless he wins. MAGAs go crazy and become even more openly hostile to Democrats, whom they refer to as “Commie Thugs.” Trump vigilante militias form to stand by along with the Proud Boys and Oath keepers in case the results are close, which they are not. Trump wins by a landslide ushering in an era of mass deportations, vigilante justice, the victory of Russia over Ukraine, and the breakup of NATO and the world order. Democracy dies in the United States. Far left groups start to form to fight the Trump regime, and the country finds itself on the verge of full scale civil war.

These two scenarios represent the extremes. We will likely end up with something in between but what? These are the times we find ourselves in on July 16, 2024. Buckle your seatbelts. It looks like it is going to be a rough ride.

What do you think? What should we Dems do about the Biden replacement question? How can we  defeat Trump?

 

 

The dilemma facing the Democrats is what to do next. With a candidate who is popular with  voters, we would have a good chance of beating Trump, who if he is reelected has promised to turn our fragile democracy upside down, taking the world order with it. The stakes have never been higher. Most people I know acknowledge this. Yet Joe Biden is not that candidate. He is unpopular, not because he has been a terrible president or hasn’t accomplished significant victories for the American people, but because of his age and perceived frailty. I get that. I am eight months older than Biden. I do not know anyone who is in their early 80s  or close to it, who thinks that octogenarians have any business in taking on what is one of the most demanding jobs in the world, if not the most demanding. For a while it looked like Biden might get a pass, and then came the devastating debate followed by the much anticipated press conference, which though not catastrophic did little to boost Biden’s image or confidence that he is playing with a full deck.

What are the Democrats to do?

It is time for the smoke-filled room.

Now I know few smoke nowadays and there is no such thing as a smoke-filled room like there used to be when party bosses would assemble from all over the country prior to their party’s convention. Smoking cigars and sipping Jack Daniels whisky, these men—yes, they were all men– were the party’s movers and shakers who would slug it out behind closed doors prior to the convention and narrow the list of contenders to a few who presumably could win in a general election. This was before the reforms of the late 60s, which ushered in a competitive primary system, which mostly has worked—until now. Biden won the primaries essentially unopposed. But this was before the debate, which unveiled one of the administration’s best kept secrets that Biden is aging quickly and no longer sharp. He slurs his words, gets confused, and is unsteady on his feet. Hey, I understand that. I have some of the same challenges. This is just the way it works on the Planet Earth with us Homo sapiens as we age. If Biden is struggling now, what will he be like in two or three years?

What is most distressing is that Biden refuses to listen or see the writing on the wall. He has said many times that he will never withdraw his name to allow for an open convention. He blames the party’s elite who he believes are giving him a hard time for no reason, the skeptical press, and the big doners, and believes that all the polls are wrong. When knocked down Biden says he gets back up and fights harder and wins. This is his life story. His family is urging him to fight on despite the odds. So are his closest advisors. But they all have skin in the game and will lose their jobs if he pulls out.

Shame on them!

So my message to the President is this: Sorry, Joe, even though your opponent is just as confused and even more incoherent than you are—and almost as old– all the polls show he is ahead in key battleground states and that your age is a huge stumbling block. Plus, the whole world was watching the debate.  We all witnessed your demise with our own eyes. You had your chance to turn the tide and you failed.  Game over.

So back to the smoke-filled room. What needs to happen is for the brain trust of the Democratic Party and the Democrat fat cats to break out the whisky, light the cigars and sit you down behind the wood shed for a come-to-Jesus moment. This should include Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, a trusted pollster, one of the fat cats, and maybe one of your trusted media friends like Joe Scarborough. This needs to happen now, like early in the next week at the latest. The longer it takes, the more difficult it will be to figure out an orderly process which allows the stars in the next generation their opportunity to compete for the most demanding and important job on the world stage. If you do this, you will secure your legacy as one of the best, single term presidents in our history and be loved and admired for putting away your pride and ambition for what is best for your party and your country. If you don’t pull out, however, your legacy will be facilitating a takeover by a wannabe fascist dictator.

 

 

Note to Reader: For those who are not familiar with “Faux News: All the Fake News That Is Fit To Print,” this news source was very active in my blog postings during the Trump presidency. Due to the high stakes of the upcoming election, I have returned to it out of desperation.

What distinguishes Faux News (properly pronounced “Fox News”)  from other reliable sources of news coverage like PBS, CNN, The Washington Post and The New York Times, is that at Faux News we have informants disguised as messengers, janitors, stenographers, and technicians who work in the White House and can eavesdrop on top level, highly confidential conversations in the Oval Office. This is the latest post from one of the fictitious White House informants, a janitor, who overheard and secretly recorded this conversation verbatim following the ABC interview. Enjoy.

 

A group of high level Biden advisors are gathered in the Oval Office with Biden to discuss campaign strategy moving forward, following the ABC interview.

Advisor 1: Mister President. Bad news to report. Your approval among likely voters remains very low; and if the election were held today, it is likely that you would lose to the fascist Trump by a landslide. While we think you did a good job on the ABC News interview last night, you may not have convinced very many people that you are actually much younger than you look, that you are vigorous, intellectually sharp, and are at  the top of your game.

Biden: But I have been a great president. All the Democrats say that. Why are they turning against me? I am not all that old. I am as sharp as ever.

Advisor 2: Well, you come across as being too old and it appears nothing will change people’s minds at this point.

Biden: Well, I am not stepping down and never will. Jill supports me on this. So does my family.

Advisor 1: Great news, Mister President. You don’t have to. We have a solution.

Biden: Really? I am all ears. 

Advisor 1. You pull out your revolver, shoot Trump at close range, and kill him during the second debate. It would be spectacular! It would make headlines all over the world, and there is not a damn thing anyone can do about it if it is an official act. The Supreme Court now grants total immunity to the President of the United States for all official acts while in office.

Biden: But I am not all that good with a gun. My hands shake, my vision is not the best, and I might miss him and hit one of the commentators. Plus, it is against my religion. The Bible says “Thou shalt not kill.”

Advisor 2. We understand that you might have some reservations, Mister President, and have a suggestion which we believe may be more to your liking. If you do not feel up to the task, we recommend that you order the military to do it. There are many options like the Navy Seals or the Army Green Berets or one of our military spies.  However, to get the most publicity and coverage, we recommend that the action happen in the middle of the next debate. Just think how dramatic this will be. It will be the talk of the town. And don’t worry. We are convinced that the Seals or whomever you choose can get the job done.

Biden: Interesting idea. Who came up with it?

Advisor 1: I did. Our intelligence agents spying on the Trump campaign report that if Trump wins, he will imprison you and probably have your cabinet, Lynn Chaney and all those involved in the House impeachment hearings arrested and executed. Pelosi and Schumer too. It is either you or Trump. He is bragging that if reelected he can do this or anything he pleases because once he is reelected, he will have lifetime immunity for anything he does that is an official act, thanks to the Supreme Court. But he forgot one thing. He has not been reelected yet. You are the sitting president, not him! So you beat Trump to the punch. The Bible I think also says something like “do unto others as they do unto you.” This should not go against your religion. So, Mister President, order the Seals to neutralize the bastard before he neutralizes you. You are the only one now with total lifetime immunity. If you don’t do this now, you will be a cooked goose once Trump gets into office. He will probably order your demise on Day One, maybe even announce this during his inauguration speech.

Biden: Geeze. Never thought about this.

Advisor 2: Mister President, you really don’t have a choice. You would be saving our country from a fascist dictator, who will take our country and our world down the tubes. This would be a heroic act. Besides making the evening news, it might even end up in the history books.

Biden:  Are you sure this would be an official act?

Advisor 1: We have researched this with the greatest legal minds and constitutional scholars in the country, who all agree that if done properly, it will be an official act. Remember that you have taken an oath to protect the Constitution. If Trump wins, he will trash the Constitution, and democracy in the U.S. will cease to exist. So, what you need to do is to tell the American people after Trump’s body is dragged off the stage not to worry. You ordered this as an official act and give them your reasons for doing this. If you would prefer that the neutralization not happen during the debate, the neutralization could happen before or after (though if Trump was neutralized before the debate, obviously there would not be a debate.). If you do not choose to wipe out the Orange Fascist during the debate, your address to the nation should occur at the exact time that your order is being carried out. Just think of the drama! You will get lots of television coverage and social media postings. Remember–you are doing this to protect the Constitution and to assure that democracy will be saved. This is an official act! Be sure you mention that in your address—that you have ordered the military to neutralize Donald J Trump because of his existential threat to our country, the Constitution, and the world.

(long pause)

Biden: Will a teleprompter be available?