Nail Biting Time

On my daily walks (painfully slow 3-4 miles nowadays) I usually listen to two or sometimes three podcasts—always the NY Times Daily, often Ezra Klein or Heather Cox Richardson and occasionally Radio Atlantic or The New Yorker Radio Hour. They are all good, and yesterday they all had programs on the election, which will be two weeks from today.  Here were the major themes from these podcasts:

  • The margins are razor thin and the races in the seven Battleground States remain too close to call. The election remains a tossup.
  • Trump is becoming more and more unhinged, incoherent, vulgar, and off topic. The Arnold Palmer locker room obsession on Sunday was perhaps a low point, but no day goes by without a gaff, insult, or rant that would doom almost any other candidate. Yet so far there is no indication that he is losing much, if any, support.
  • Harris is running a smart and impressive campaign, and the Democrats have the stronger ground game, more money, more energy and more enthusiasm. Yet so far, the needle has not budged.
  • Three factors will determine the outcome for the Harris Walz ticket —turning out the Democratic base, convincing uncommitted/undecided voters to vote for Harris, and attracting moderate, traditional Republicans and those fearful of the right to life movement in the Republican Party.

Turning out the Democratic base, of course, is hugely important and from all I can tell we Dems are doing pretty well in reaching out to Democratic voters. I know several people who are canvassing in North Carolina and other battleground states. Embry is spending next week there canvassing with her niece, May. Our nephew, Alex, has already written over 70 letters to registered Democrats in Pennsylvania who rarely vote. He aims to complete over a hundred letters and will be canvassing there the final week.

The challenge of reaching uncommitted voters is more unsettling because the message in both podcasts I listened to yesterday was that a majority of uncommitted voters appear to be leaning toward Trump. I listened to several interviews with people who rarely vote or think much about politics, all of whom were working class people living in Nevada or Arizona. The Times reporter said that the more than  100 persons she had interviewed  fell into three groups– those who will sit this election out, those who may vote for Trump with some reluctance and those who will enthusiastically vote for him. Few people she talked to in those states said they were going to vote for Harris.

To compensate for the diminished working class vote the Democrats will need to convince some  college-educated voters in the Republican Party to vote for Harris and Walz. The major targets would be women who are opposed to the Republican’s strict anti abortion policies, the traditional Republicans who can’t stomach Trump’s  personality,  Republicans who value a strong foreign policy, free trade, and balanced budgets and those who are appalled by Trump’s character and totalitarian instincts.

It seems quite likely that if the Harris Walz ticket does win, the election deniers will make another robust effort to overturn the election results. Both Trump and Vance continue to argue that the 2020 election was rigged. They will argue that the 2024 election was also stolen and take action. Get ready for another January 6-type rebellion—this one on steroids and better organized—with pressure on Republican election officials and others to change the outcome.

The perplexing question is why almost half of the United States voting population appears to be ready to vote for a fundamentally flawed human being, who intends to take the nation down the rabbit hole of authoritarianism. How could this be happening?

The most enlightening thing for me from the NY Times interviews with working class people who used to be Democrats but have changed parties or dropped out was how tough their lives have been starting with Covid. The main culprit, of course, is inflation. When you are living paycheck to paycheck, the increase in the cost of gas, milk, rent, utilities and most of life’s necessities gets your attention. While this year the increases have moderated, in their thinking it is too little too late. This happened during the Biden years. They are holding the Democrats accountable.

But could Trump do any better? Many seemed to think so. They cited what they thought were Trump’s strengths—that he was a “successful businessman,” that he always “speaks his mind,” that he won’t let anyone shove him around and, most unsettling, that Trump is a “strong man” and America needs a strongman. These are some of the same arguments that you would have heard if you had been living In Nazi Germany in the 1930s.

We do not know how this movie will end and probably won’t know until days after election day. But if nothing else the fact that it is a cliffhanger should be a warning call that all is not right in the United States of America. Beginning in the 1980s the gap between the rich—and very rich—and the rest of the country has only gotten wider. Those with incomes much below the median income –in other words about half the country—are struggling to make ends meet while the top 10 percent are pulling away from the rest of the pack faster and faster. A country can get away with this for a while but not forever. This has happened on the watch of both Republicans and Democrats. There is plenty of blame to go around. But somehow, we have got to fix this before it does us in. If Trump were to get elected, it will be too late.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 thoughts on “Nail Biting Time

  1. Thanks so much for the mention, Joe! A correction and good news on the numbers: at this point I have written 780 Vote Forward letters, about a third to Pennsylvania, a third to North Carolina, and a third to Michigan, Georgia, and other states. Leslie and I have also hosted a letter-writing party for neighbors. Through these and other efforts, my current total number of letters I’ve either sent or had friends send is 1,060 (nationwide, volunteers have either sent or committed to send more than 9 million letters through Vote Forward, and this is just one of many organizations coordinating the writing of letters and postcards for Democrats). Leslie and I will canvass in Philly this weekend, probably again with David (who canvassed with me last month), and we’re signed up to spend Saturday, November 2, through Election Day there getting out the vote. The organization we’re working with, Chesapeake Climate Action Network, is providing us with an AirBandB during our stay. Meanwhile, my brother-in-law Jim Bash has pretty much devoted his life this fall to canvassing, phone-banking, and writing letters and postcards. The ground game is on!

    1. Oh my goodness! I initially put in 700 letters but then concluded that would have been impossible so reduced it to 70. Mia Culpa. And YOU, Alex Martin, are a hero! If we can pull this off I am recommending you for a cabinet position,
      -Proud uncle

    2. Here is a statement from Albert Einstein in 1939:
      The following testimony from Albert Einstein was published in the Bulletin of February 12, 1939:
      “Being a lover of freedom, when the revolution came in Germany, I looked to the universities to defend it, knowing that they had always boasted of their devotion to the cause of truth; but no, the universities immediately were silenced. Then I looked to the great editors of the newspapers whose flaming editorials in days gone by had proclaimed their love of feedom; but they, like the universities, were silenced in a few short weeks. Then I looked to the individual writers, who a, as literary guides of Germany, had written much and often concerning the place of freedom in modern life; but they, to, were mute. Only the church stood squarely across the path of Hitler’s campaign for suppressing truth. I never had any special interest in the church before but now I feel a great affection and admiration because the church alone has had the courage and persist to stand for intellectual truth and moral freedom. I am forced to confess that what I once despised I now praise unreservedly.”
      I am encouraged that Jim Wallis and other contemporary religious leaders are taking similar stands today (https://religionnews.com/2024/10/01/there-is-a-christian-movement-to-welcome-the-stranger).

  2. “Beginning in the 1980s the gap between the rich—and very rich—and the rest of the country has only gotten wider.”

    Any chance that could be due in large part to the myth of “trickle-down economics” invented by Reagan/Bush to justify big tax cuts for the wealthiest?

    We forget that the highest marginal tax rates were well north of 50% for the majority of the 20th century (up until Reagan’s first tax cut in 1982) – and on the whole, the United States economy did just fine.

    Few would suggest that America did not prosper throughout the 20th century.

  3. Cap’n,
    Third from last paragraph hits it. Inflation was what ousted Jimmy Carter from the White House. That and the hostages in Iran. Both of these issues were dealt with in short order under Reagan, whom, as you know, I supported.
    Ditch the primary system and return to the old convention system, the smoke filled rooms. A guy like Trump would have been laughed out of the hall, IMO.

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