The Trump Team of lackies and sycophants are busy at work so that when Trump is sworn in and addresses the nation on January 20, he will likely announce that his actions are already being carried out “as he speaks.” No fooling around here: Let the Trump MAGA revolution begin! Well, we won’t be able to say we were not forewarned. All these actions are spelled out in the Project 2025 playbook.

And what might those actions be? Trump has already told us. Tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese imports will be first on the list. Many more tariffs will follow for other countries. The military and National Guard will be ordered to begin deporting more than 11 million undocumented residents, many who have lived here for decades, raised their families and have important jobs. Contracts will be signed with major, private prison companies to begin constructing several massive detention camps imprisoning over a half million people each.  War will be declared on “Sanctuary Cities,” withdrawing all federal aid to cities and jurisdictions which resist deportation. Uncooperating mayors and local officials could be arrested and jailed.  I would not be surprised to hear Trump announce that pink slips will be handed out to some 50, 000 career civil servants starting the following day, and that the Justice Department will now report directly to him. Deep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), and other social safety net programs will be ordered and Trump will pledge to finally put a dagger in (the now popular) Obamacare. He will cut funding for climate change initiatives, along with many other federal programs, which he says in total will cut over three trillion dollars from government operations. He will say he is further “boosting the economy” by generously reducing taxes for major corporations and billionaires. He will end the war in Ukraine in one day–presumably the next day. Finally, Trump will conclude by proudly announcing that this is just the beginning.

No way, you say. This is just his way of making a splash, pleasing the MAGA faithfuls, and unnerving Democrats and others who hate him.

Okay, I admit to describing a scenario which is designed to get your attention. All these pledges may not happen during Trump’s speech, but there is not an item that I have listed that Trump has not promised or alluded to do at one time or another. We should not be caught off guard.

And your skepticism is also well founded. The good news is that he will not be able to do all or even most of what he pronounces and that many of the policies that he does implement will be economically disastrous and widely unpopular. If he sticks to this ill-conceived agenda, his will be a failed presidency. His tariffs and his deportation initiatives will not only fail, but they will also be disasters. Still, we must brace ourselves for a bumpy sleigh ride that could take us down a slippery slope towards the abyss. Much damage could–and probably will– be done. Here is a brief look at what in my view are the major items.

The Tariffs.

In a word, these are insanity. I am not aware of a single, reputable economist in the country who thinks tariffs are a good idea. The result will increase prices for ordinary people, when China, Mexico and Canada retaliate with their own tariffs, spurring more inflation. The irony is that what got Trump elected this time was due mainly to the unpopular increases in prices that happened because of economic and supply line problems associated with covid. The Trump tariffs will also increase unemployment because when the price of U.S. exports go up, people in those countries will buy fewer U.S. goods and services. Plus, there is only so much Trump can do with tariffs anyway. The Trade Act of 1974 allows the president to impose a tariff up to 15% for only 150 days– but only if there is determined “to be an adverse impact on national security from imports.” After 150 days the tariffs expire unless extended by an action of both Houses of Congress. How likely is that to happen–especially if inflation returns and the world economy is headed for a recession? The tariffs will fail.

Massive Arrests and Deportations of Undocumented Workers.

This is also insanity. I have already addressed this in a recent post. Much needless pain and suffering are going to be caused by this cruel and unnecessary action. Trump is calling for the deportation of 11-12 million people. Nothing on this scale has happened in human history. For reasons noted below, it won’t happen this time either as he envisions, but families will be separated, and lives will be destroyed.

Trump is supposed to start with convicted prisoners.  Many Sanctuary Cities have agreed to cooperate in handing over these people if that is the end of it. When others are rounded up, however, there will be pushback and resistance.

The first outcry will be from the immigrants who are directly affected and others that care about them. Most Americans come in contact with undocumented workers on a regular basis –the person who cuts your grass, checks you out at the grocery store, fixes a broken appliance, provides care to an aging parent, washes the dishes in restaurants you go to, delivers your Amazon purchases, drives  Uber cabs….

Please. We all have met them, and we all depend on them. The thought of what is in store for them is heart breaking.

The second outcry will come from the industries that rely heavily on undocumented workers. According to the New American Economy and the American Immigration Council, many industries depend on these people. Over 36% of the agriculture workforce, 26% of people doing grounds maintenance, 25% involved in food preparation, 23% in the apparel industry, 23% of all cooks, 20% of construction workers and 19% who work in building maintenance are undocumented. If all or most are deported, many hotels and restaurants would close, and much needed housing construction would plummet. Produce would rot in the fields. They also make up a large share of the long term care sector. Assisted living communities, nursing homes and senior living communities would be desperate for workers. So would hospitals. The list is long.

There are other reasons that massive deportation is not feasible. The two most important are costs and timing. A CBS News’ analysis of immigration system in October of 2024 data found the following:

• Apprehending and deporting just one million people could cost taxpayers at least $20 billion for just the first year of a multi-year effort.
• Deporting 11 million people over four years would cost over $220 billion not adjusting for inflation. Also, the deportation effort would require new funding that would have to be approved by a majority of both chambers of Congress, an unlikely event since the Senate Democrats would filibuster such a law.
• The massive deportation camps are likely to take time to secure sites. NIMBYs typically come out of the woodwork to protest when a nonprofit housing group wants to build a homeless shelter in their neighborhood for only a few people. Can you imagine the outrage when plans are announced for a makeshift prison holding over 100,000 people?
• Trump’s first administration, despite promising to deport millions in 2016 deported only 325,660 people during the entire four years he was president. And it wasn’t because they did not try.
• Timing is also not realistic. A mass deportation, depending on its scale, could not possibly be completed in four years. Immigration courts in the U.S. currently face a backlog of 3.7 million cases. It would take the immigration court system eight more years and 700 additional judges — almost double its existing workforce — just to eliminate the existing backlog entirely, according to the Congressional Research Service. And those actions need to happen before the massive arrests and deportations can even begin.

In summary, there is no way that the kind of massive deportation Trump envisions will be feasible. However, some will be rounded up and many will be terrified. It will be a mess.

Cracking Down on Sanctuary Cities.

Sanctuary Cities are jurisdictions that have passed laws preventing local law enforcement from cooperating in the deportation effort. Trump tried to force cities to participate in deportations during his first term in 2016. He was vigorously opposed by the ACLU, which won rulings that there were no grounds for withholding funds already approved by Congress for Sanctuary Cities. However, some courts have ruled differently on this issue. It appears likely that since there is unsettled law in this area, it will be at the center of the first major battle in the deportation initiative and could play a decisive role in determining the outcome, likely to be decided (unfortunately) by the Robert’s Supreme Court. The ACLU is gearing up for a major legal battle. The legal effort could take some time before a Supreme Court decision is made. If the Court rules against the Sanctuary Cities, massive deportations could proceed in earnest, opening the way for a worst case scenario though cost and logistical challenges will remain and substantially limit the number of deportations that will happen.

Politicizing the Civil Service and Weaponizing the Department of Justice.

Trump may  want to fire or demote  thousands of career civil servants and appoint lackies already vetted by the Heritage Foundation, but he will face robust legal opposition spearheaded by the ACLU and supported by the labor union for government workers. This will also take time and money, and there is no guarantee that he will get away with this. Congressional approval is likely to be required, which is not likely to happen.

Shredding the Social and Health Care Safety Net.

Leon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have their eyes focused on cutting funds from programs providing help to poor people. Reductions in these programs will cause great suffering for those who need help the most and will likely be opposed by many people, not just the poor. Trump also has tried to kill the ACA many times and it is now more popular than ever. Many who voted for him depend on it. Pushback and outrage from the American public  is likely to happen when the social safety net is shredded.

Cutting Taxes (again) for the Ultra Rich.

This will be another big push that will be hugely unpopular. How do you justify more tax savings for the ultra-rich while cutting the social safety net and promoting a balanced budget?

Fighting for Fossil Fuels and Curltailing Climate Initiatives.

Trump did little in  his first term on climate change except for getting out of the Paris Accords. While he is likely to repeat his climate change denials, he is not likely to get very far on initiatives which will require Congressional  approval. However, there is a good chance that he will pull the U.S. out of the Paris Accords as he did during his first term.

Trying to Kill Obamacare (Again).

 Really? Give me a break. The program is very popular.

Ending the War in Ukraine in One Day.

 Along with the deportations this could be the most important issue, which could transform NATO and make World War III more likely. How will Trump do this?  Which countries will be next on Russia’s takeover list? Will the U.S. become a Russian ally? And what about Palestine? What will happen to the post World War II American European alliance? It could turn out that Trump will do more damage in foreign policy than domestic policy.

Trusting in Government and the future of Democracy.

Chaos will reign as Trump and his lackies fight to overturn the way the American government has worked in the past. He will ultimately lose but not before he has caused chaos.  He will likely try to make the case for an authoritarian, strongman government. This could turn out to be the biggest fight of all and the biggest threat to our democracy.

 

In summary fasten your seat belts. On January 20, the Trump II drama will begin. Will there be a resistance movement? Will the guard rails hold preventing the worst case scenarios? Will Sanctuary Cities survive? Will democracy itself be able to survive in the U.S.? Will we find ourselves closer to a World War III scenario, which if it happened would mean the end of the Planet Earth as we know it?

 Scary, though interesting, times. My predictions are that Trump will fail for a second time. The inflation (caused by tariffs), the likely mobilization by a Resistance Movement to oppose the massive deportations, the legal guardrails, and the support by ordinary people against his worst and meanest policies will move the country back toward a center left government. Sanctuary Cities will prevail. The massive deportation camps will not get built. Tariffs will fail. And there is the question as to whether he will even survive another four years. He certainly seems to be failing mentally. But still. Serious damage will be done, and the country could find itself weakened and divided.  

 Wishful thinking that the worst scenarios will be avoided? Perhaps, but there is always room for hope.  The most important thing is for those who oppose Trump to organize and resist his actions.  I believe–I pray–our country will muddle through. The movie starts January 20, and no one knows how it will end.

 Stay tuned.

 

 

 

Friends, it appears that we are on the cusp of both an immigration reign of terror and a transformation of the way government works in the United States.  I do not believe Trump was elected to turn American democracy into a dictatorship. He was elected primarily because of the post-covid unhappiness and worry of many Americans caused by the inflation which happened during the last two years of the Biden presidency. We Democrats also lost many in the working class—which historically has been our base– because of their unhappiness with the status quo, particularly the economy, and their distrust of “political correctness” by many Democrats, not because they wanted Trump to deport 11 million undocumented workers, fire the generals and career civil servants, end climate initiatives, shred the social safety net, champion more tax cuts for the ultra-rich, and curtail vaccines and public health initiatives. They voted for him,  hoping for an economy that is fairer and where they do not have to struggle from paycheck to paycheck. Why they chose Trump remains a mystery, but it will gradually become obvious to them that they picked the wrong horse when high tariffs and fewer immigrant workers cause more inflation and government social safety net programs are decimated. But that will take time. And what are we to do in the meantime—especially regarding the draconian deportation of undocumented immigrants?

Some have cautioned not to take Trump’s pledge to imprison and deport 11 million undocumented residents seriously. There is no way he could pull this off, they argue. He will surely move to the center. Some of these are the same people that said that before passing judgement on Trump’s pledge to unravel what he calls the deep state we should look at whom he appoints as cabinet members and advisors. During his first term, they were mostly moderates and capable people,  Well, not this time.The evidence is now in. Trump’s nominations include crackpots, sex offenders, and nutcases.  No one he has nominated has the experience required to run a government department and all are sycophants.

What can we do? The starting point is the American Civil Liberties Union. For months the ACLU has been anticipating what Trump will do if reelected.

The ACLU maintains that Trump will not be able to accomplish his objectives on immigration without violating federal laws and the U.S. Constitution. They sued the government during Trump’s first term numerous times and won lawsuits that stopped the separation of families at the border, the arbitrary termination of asylum, stripping away the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census. They believe that many of Trump’s likely deportation actions starting in 2025 will run afoul of the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures, including arrests and detentions without individualized suspicions. They also cite the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments, which guarantee equal protection of the laws by law enforcement and point out that there is no exception for immigrants. They also contend that there is no inherent rule in the Constitution or anywhere else that distinguishes  legal protections for  U.S. citizens that exclude undocumented people–“not language, not place of birth, not even the manner of their entry into the United States.” Specifically, the Fifth Amendment due process clause and the Constitution Suspension Clause also safeguard the writ of habeaus corpus, which protects individuals against unlawful imprisonment. The ACLU also believes that diverting funds to build the detention camps violates federal funding statues and that federalizing the National Guard and deploying the military to carry out deportation is illegal. The ACLU has won many cases involving these unconstitutional and illegal government actions in the past and is geared up to take these on again. They provide a set of legal guardrails that could stop the worst from happening. But then again,  who knows what will happen with the Robert’s Supreme Court?

Another potential guard rail is provided by sanctuary cities. Many cities, counties and states have passed laws that limit cooperation with the federal government regarding immigration by declaring themselves “sanctuary cities.” The term refers to a city (or a county, or a state) that limits its cooperation with federal immigration enforcement agents to protect low-priority immigrants from deportation, while  turning over those who have committed serious crimes.  In mid 2024 there were approximately 600 sanctuary jurisdictions of differing sizes across the country.

In January 2017, Trump signed an executive order requiring sanctuary cities to comply with federal immigration laws or else have federal funding pulled. But in April of that year, a San Francisco judge blocked the order saying that the president had overstepped his powers by trying to tie billions in federal funding to immigration enforcement.  Only Congress could place such conditions on spending.

There are also “welcoming cities,” which are pro-immigration but not specifically opposed to federal action which affects immigrants. While sanctuary policies focus on not cooperating with immigration authorities, welcoming cities are more generally focused around creating a welcoming and supportive environment for immigrants, though this does not preclude opposing federal deportations. There are currently 24 certified “welcoming jurisdictions” in the U.S. Many of those that do not prohibit cooperation are considering adding that to their charter.

The good news is that some guard rails are in place to slow down the deportation process and that there will be opposition to Trump’s mass deportation of immigrants. The bad news is that we are not sure that the guard rails will hold or that they will significantly impair Trump’s deportation promises.

While the situation is terrifying to those who are not documented and to those who love them, I am hopeful that the worst will be averted. Some of the guardrails will hold, and there will be pushback from many others who will be horrified when they realize what is happening. While we are flawed, we are not an evil country. Good and decent people are in the majority. People will not sit idly by and watch the pain and suffering happen without taking action.

There will be a Resistance Movement. But what will the Resistance Movement look like? I think that the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s and the Anti War Movement in the 1970s provide some clues. Embry and I were both involved in the Civil Rights Movement when we worked with SNCC in Southwest Georgia in 1966. We also participated in protests against the Vietnam War. I believe that when the arrests and deportations start, we will see mass demonstrations, protests, marches, and peaceful civil disobedience like what happened more than fifty years ago. The main question I have is who is going to lead this effort. Is there a Martin Luther King Jr out there somewhere (who is an immigrant) or others who will inspire and rally people to the cause? What will our institutions do, especially the churches? This seems like a perfect opportunity for churches to provide asylum and protection and to take a stand against Trump’s deportation actions and for church leaders to step up to the plate. This will be a time when people will have to make decisions–to join the Resistance or not. Sitting this one out is a tacit endorsement of the Trump agenda.

Let the Resistance Movement begin now!

 

 

Like many of you I am concerned about Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants. What we  know is this: There are at least 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States– men, women and children. At least seven million are employed. The deportations are supposed to begin on “Day One,” Inauguration Day, and continue until all undocumented workers are out of the country. The plan appears to be to deport one million people the first year and to have every illegal alien out of the United States by the end of Trump’s presidency. For this to happen deportations would need to increase from one million a year to an average of three million every year after that. We also can calculate that to accomplish the goal of one million deportees the first year would require over 2,700 arrests every day and over 8,000 arrests every day during the three years after that. For this to happen the National Guard and the U.S. Military would have to be involved. It will also require the construction of massive concentration camps, hundreds of millions of dollars to construct and billions to maintain and operate. The immigrants would stay in these concentration camps before being packed into planes and trucks to take them out of the country.

Let’s pause for a minute to think about this: Thousands of people every day across America will be arrested and put into detention camps during the next four years. The vast majority now hold jobs in industries that depend on them like construction, agriculture, hospitality, hospitals, and long term care. This is insanity. Can you even begin to fathom the river of tears that will result? For comparison, during World War II while more than six million Jews were murdered in the Holocaust, there were “only” 1.65 million registered prisoners in Nazi concentration camps of which over a million died. Trump’s plan is to imprison over six times the number of prisoners in Hitler’s concentration camps. And sadly, this will not be the first time that something like this has happened in the United States. In one of the most shameful chapters in U.S. history we imprisoned over 120,000 people of Japanese descent in 10 concentration camps during World War II. But this terrible chapter is miniscule when compared to what Trump plans to do now.

But this situation is different, you may argue. (And it is, of course. Nothing compares to the horror of the Holocaust.) The consolation is that  in this case these people will be in camps only temporarily for maybe a few months before they are shipped off to the country they came from. Well, this will be easier said than done. While many of the undocumented people are from Mexico and Central America, immigrants come from all over the world. The countries they come from may not want them back. Many immigrants may not be able to prove they are legitimate citizens of that country. What will happen to them when their country refuses to accept them? And what do the logistics look like? Will 18-wheelers pause at designated gates in the border wall where armed guards will shove people from the crammed trucks onto the Mexican desert and then drive off to pick up another load?

This is not an academic exercise for me and Embry nor for our children and grandchildren. Our family is very close to four immigrants. They are like family. They are family. Except for a teenage birthright son born in the United States, all are undocumented and at risk. What will happen to them? Is there anything we or anyone can do to keep this from happening? Will they be doomed to live in fear every day once the deportations get started? Will at some point soldiers enter their house, handcuff them, and throw them into the back of a van, never to be seen again? Will they also confiscate the house they own, their car, their bank account, and the condo they own and rent out?

There is already much groaning from despondent Democrats like me about what is likely to happen under Trump’s second shot at the Presidency. Nothing in my view comes close to Trump’s deportation plan as an existential threat to what America stands for. It is a lose/lose situation for everyone–for undocumented  immigrants, for those who love them, for the industries that employ them and for the country. All of these people have made new lives for themselves, and many have become very successful like the immigrant family we are close to. Unemployment in the country is low. We need these workers to do important jobs. Without them businesses will have to pay higher wages resulting in more inflation. Nursing homes and assisted living communities will be desperate to find nursing assistants and care givers. Construction companies will be short staffed. Some hotels and restaurants will be forced to close. Nobody wins.

Most of all, however, what I fear is the cruel and needless suffering that will affect millions of people. We can’t let this happen.

 

 

 

Everyone I know is in a state of despair and hopelessness. How could Trump’s decisive victory have happened? What will happen next? Is this the end of democracy in the U.S.? Is it the beginning of a new world order?

Trump’s announcement following his astonishing victory was, “Promises made, promises kept.” We know what these promises are:

• Appointing cabinet members and top government advisors who have been fully vetted and are 100 percent behind Trump. No more John Kellys, Bill Barrs, Mark Milleys, or Jim Mattises. Any semblance to guard rails will be gone, allowing Trump to be Trump. The job postings now stipulate “only sycophants need apply.” Two names already at the top of the list for key posts are Robert F Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk.
• Changing the status of high level federal government workers from protected civil servants to at will employees allowing Trump to fire thousands of persons in management positions in the federal government and replace them with sycophants already vetted by the Heritage Foundation. He also has said he will relocate hundreds of thousands of federal government jobs out of Washington.
• Attacking the free press and other “enemies of the people.”
• Arresting and deporting immigrants starting with those who are not documented. There are an estimated 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States or about 3.5% or the entire U.S. population. He has hinted that he will tap the U.S. military for this job, going from house to house and knocking on the doors of suspected culprits. Those unable to provide valid U.S. passports or credentials will be arrested on the spot and shipped off to massive “holding camps” managed by private prison companies. He will also close the Southern border and eliminate birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants.
• Imposing tariffs on all imports with huge tariffs on goods produced in China.
• Punishing his enemies. He has identified many people he will order the FBI to investigate, put them in jail or execute them—the Biden “crime family,” Hilary Clinton, Jack Smith, Liz Chaney, Adam Schiff, Nancy Pelosi, and many others. This will include weaponizing the Justice Department to go after his adversaries. He will also weaponize the IRS to assist in this effort.
• Replacing the ACA with something better (again!).
• Reducing “wasteful government spending” on social programs. He has talked about eliminating major government agencies like the Department of Education and drastically reducing the size of the Environmental Protection Agency. If Musk is put in charge, Musk is promising savings of several trillion dollars from cutting these safety net programs.
• Awarding massive additional tax cuts to “job producers” (mainly billionaires and giant corporations).
• Gutting regulations and policies addressing climate change and rewarding fossil fuel producers and polluters.
• Supporting abortion bans.

He has also hinted he will be cozying up to strongman rulers like Putin, Erdogan of Turkey, Orban of Hungary and Kim Jon Un of North Korea and will distance himself from European leaders he does not like. It would not be a surprise to see him get the U.S. out of NATO.  And he has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, which implies facilitating a Russian victory.

And what is most perplexing to me is that none of these promised initiatives addresses the needs of his base—what is now a multi-ethnic working class. Zero! If the ACA is ditched many will lose their health insurance. Food security (SNAP) will be cut. Schools could lose much of their federal funding. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will also be on the table if Musk gets his way. I don’t get it. Except for a small coterie of billionaires anxious for more tax cuts, I can’t see how these policies will be popular with a majority of voters. They certainly will not benefit the working class that made Trump’s victory possible. Trump’s victory was  classic bait and switch.

As noted in my last blog, I attribute Trump’s victory mainly to the discomfort felt by so many in the working class who are struggling to get by. The post covid inflation phenomenon was the primary culprit. That is now under control but came too little too late for many people. They voted for Trump. Two other factors were especially important in this election—social media and fake news. Nowadays people can choose whatever news source they want to hear or watch, and there are more right wing, MAGA news media outlets than there are Democrat leaning ones.

So, what are Harris/Walz supporters and bleeding heart Democrats like me supposed to do? How are we going to get through the next four years? How much of his agenda Trump can deliver on will be a big factor in determining what happens next. And two of Trumps initiatives may not go so well for many in his base–massive immigrant deportation and tariffs.

Trump’s plans include arresting all undocumented immigrants, relocating them to massive holding camps to be constructed by private prison companies, and then deporting them. How is Trump going to pull this off? The vast majority have jobs and may have made friends with their neighbors. Some have lived here for decades. When you see the military banging on your neighbor’s   door, pulling out a screaming family and throwing them into the back of a van, that will make an impression on people. Chances are many people know the family to be hard working and good citizens.  Some may be good friends. Their children may go to the same school. When people realize what is going on, many will be horrified. Some will stand up against it. And resistance will happen millions of times all over the country.

Pressure to end the deportation effort is also likely to come from businesses like hospitality, construction, landscaping, and health care. They depend on immigrants to do much of the heavy lifting  that native-born Americans avoid. Many are undocumented. Farming and agriculture are even more dependent on immigrants in harvesting fruits and vegetables. If they put pressure on the Trump administration to curtail these actions, this could help soften the blow somewhat though the picture of a Nazi-like nightmare unfolding is likely to emerge and tarnish the image of the United States around the world. Lasting damage will have been done.

The other Trump initiative which is likely to get him into trouble with the American population are the heavy tariffs he has pledged on imports, especially on China. Few if any economists think that tariffs are a good idea. They point out that they result in significantly higher prices paid by the U.S. consumer and that if heavy tariffs happen, they will lead to high inflation. Inflation is what got Biden, Harris and the Democrats in trouble. It will also cost many billions to carry this out. Where is that money going to come from?

There will be pressure on Trump to curtail both initiatives. There will also be unhappiness on other initiatives such as shredding the social safety net, eliminating federal departments and agencies, getting rid of the ACA, and the huge deficits which will happen due to the tax cuts for the super-rich. Federal employees will not be happy campers. Environmental advocates will be outraged. Deficit hawks will be angry. That won’t stop Trump, who will do what he wants. Wishful thinking that Trump’s reign of terror will end? Hopefully it will, since I can’t imagine that these policies will be popular with most people—especially his working class base. But then again, democracy itself may be under attack, and what the general population thinks may no longer be an issue.

These are scary times we live in. You might not be worried, but I am.

 

Embry and I attended an election watch party at our Washington apartment house  where close to a hundred people were gathered in a large meeting room to watch the MSNBC presidential election coverage on a giant TV screen while chatting, sipping wine and munching on tidbits. The mood was upbeat and hopeful. I doubt that there was a single Trump supporter in the group of mostly retired people. Sure, the pollsters had warned us that the race was a tossup, but how could we lose against a scoundrel like Trump, a convicted felon, habitual liar, wannabe dictator, and braggart? Kamala had run an inspiring campaign, wiped him out in the debate, plus the Democrats had a stronger ground game for turning out the vote and had spent more money than the Republicans. Also, the abortion issue had galvanized women voters. It certainly looked like momentum was on our side.

We departed a little before ten in the evening when it already had become obvious that the  runaway I had predicted for Harris was not going to happen.  The voting reports in Georgia and North Carolina showed that Trump was clearly ahead. If Harris lost both battleground states, the path to winning would be much more difficult. Embry turned in while I collapsed in front of our television to follow the action for a while longer becoming more concerned after MSNBC called both states for Trump. I stayed up to around midnight noting that similar patterns were happening in other battleground contests, then turned in. I was worried enough that I could not fall asleep. When I checked my iPhone for an update, probably around two, the gap was becoming wider in Pennsylvania and other battleground states. I felt panic coming on and for the rest of the night fitfully drifted in and out of sleep. When I checked my iPhone around three in the morning, it appeared that Trump was going to win the election. When I woke up around five, Embry, who had been awake for some time, whispered in my ear, “Trump won!”

I  spent most of Wednesday watching MSNBC and CNN where pundits gathered trying to make sense out of what had happened. All sorts of ideas were being tossed around: “if only Biden had dropped out a year earlier, allowing primaries to pick a candidate,” “if only Kamela had had more time to introduce herself to the voters,” “if only the Democrats had not been so woke and politically correct,” “if only Biden were not so unpopular and that Kamala had been able to say what she would do differently,” “if only Kamala were not a woman,” “if only Kamala were not biracial…”

In my opinion, the main reason for Trump’s victory is what I call, “The Revenge of the Multicultural Working Class.” I have described this in my two previous blog posts. Beginning in the 1930s when FDR was president, the Democrats embraced the working class, which became the base of the party. This began to change in the 1960s when civil rights and The Great Society programs became the central focus of the party. Then in the 1980s the Reagan revolution reduced taxes for middle and upper income people and reduced financial regulations, which permitted income disparities to grow between blue collar and white collar workers. Labor unions diminished in membership and power. Then in the mid 1990s NAFTA permitted and encouraged factory relocations to Mexico. Good paying union jobs with benefits began to shrink, especially in the industrial Midwest. This was followed by influx of immigrants primarily from Mexico, Central and South America, who competed with American blue collar workers for jobs and kept wages low. Manufacturing jobs decreased from a high of 27% in 1970 to less than 10% of the workforce in 2016 and are estimated to be about 7% today. The service jobs that replaced them paid much less and offered few health or retirement benefits.

Many people who work in these jobs struggle to pay their bills. That is why  inflation became a major issue for them. When the cost of bread or milk is close to double what it was only a year or two ago, people in these jobs notice. In addition, the gap between the incomes of those with no college and those with a college degree has continued to widen. Cultural and religious values are different. Plus, many without a college degree feel that they are looked down on by college educated elites. Many in the working class are angry. Kamala did not successfully address their anger. Trump did. His dystopian message of gloom and despair resonated with the alienated working class. He rode the wave of resentment to a victory over Harris just as he had done with Hillary in 2016. Remember Hillary’s “deplorables” comment? Trump used the same playbook in 2024. Trump described himself as “Your retribution,” the strong man who will fix the woes of those who struggle to get by. The enemies are immigrants, woke Democrats, “cat lady childless women,” and elite prep schoolers born with silver spoons in their mouths. It did not seem to matter to Trump’s base that he was also one of those silver spooners. As long as he despised them, he was their hero: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

Of course, this is all a lie– an example of the  quintessential bait and switch. The big money behind Trump is from billionaires who support him to get the tax and regulatory breaks they think they deserve. And the lies Trump spreads are facilitated by social media and fake news, which permit Trump to get away with saying anything he wants to. His policies do little for his base. The only person he cares for is himself. 

One thing that seems to have changed in this election compared  to 2016 is  that for this election it is not just the alienated white working class that comprise Trump’s base. Some 45 percent of Hispanic voters also voted for Trump, a huge increase from previous elections and another reason to be concerned.

There is lots of  soul searching by Monday morning political quarterbacks as to what has gone wrong with the Democratic Party. How did we  miss the size of those who bought into Trump’s dark message of dispair. The challenge for the Democrats is how to recapture at least part of the alienated, now multi-cultural, working class. The adults without a college degree in the U.S. account for 62 percent of the population. There are a lot more of them than there are of those with college degrees. The first order of business for the Democrats should be to figure out how to get them back. This involves  figuring  out how to level the playing field a bit so that everyone who works hard will be able to earn a living wage. This will take some time, effort, and money and the national willpower to make changes.

So how scared should we  be when  Team Trump team takes over? The answer is a lot.  Stay tune for the next blog post. 

 

 

 

 

 

Embry and I spent the summer of 1966 working in the Civil Rights Movement in Southwest Georgia. We and several of my Union Seminary classmates had been recruited by Charles Sherrod, a classmate at Union and a civil rights leader, to work with the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC). We lived with a courageous, African American, subsistence farming family in Baker County, about 30 miles south of Albany. We registered voters, assisted in the local Head Start Program, attended “mass meetings” and strategy sessions, and hung out in the neighborhood. It was an experience of a lifetime and one that we will always be grateful for and proud of.

Today the topic of the New York Times Dailey podcast happened to focus on Albany, not far from the town where we had lived. The issue on the Daily was whether some African Americans now appear to be leaving the Democratic Party and are becoming Republicans or Independents. Albany! Good heavens, we knew the people who were on the front lines of the Civil Rights Movement there. We saw how much was accomplished, albeit with great difficulty. The people we worked with were heroes, and many went on to achieve great things. Charlie Sherrod became a city council member. His wife, Shirley, became a high level government official in the Department of Agriculture during the Obama Administration. Schools became integrated. Good jobs opened up for African Americans.  A majority of the city’s elected officials have been Black for many years. My thinking was that the movement had accomplished a great deal in Albany and rural Southwest Georgia. And certainly, this was true for the family we lived with. The oldest son—the first African American to graduate from a formerly segregated high school in Baker County– got a college degree from a HBCU college in Texas and then a master’s degree in finance from Stanford. He went on to become the President and COO of the largest railroad in California. His wife, whom he met in college, got an MBA from Stanford and became the CFO of The Bay Area Blue Cross and Blue Shield. If this is not success, I do not know what is.

There were two principal people interviewed for the Daily podcast, an elderly African American mother and her middle aged son. The mother, now retired, was active in the early 1970s in the Civil Rights Movement, a few years after we lived there. She later became a civil rights lawyer and a member of the Albany City Council. The contrast between the attitudes of the two people could not have been stronger. The mother was positive and proud of the achievements of the Civil Rights Movement, is a dedicated, lifelong Democrat and huge fan of Obama. She said she will enthusiastically vote for Harris. The son—whose job was not revealed– described himself as leaning Republican or Independent and admitted he had a somewhat positive view of Trump. He does not want to vote for Harris but confessed that he will probably not decide until he is in the voting booth.

He explained why he has abandoned the Democratic Party. The times, he said, have changed from the years immediately following the Civil Rights Movement. During the 1970s and 1980s factories were moving to Albany, providing new jobs with better pay for African Americans. Schools were integrated and professional careers were opening for people of color. He was just a child then but realized that was an era of optimism and hope. In the late 1990s when NAFTA had become law, many of those factories began to leave for Mexico, unemployment began to rise, and the crack cocaine epidemic ravaged the neighborhoods where many African Americans lived. Entire neighborhoods deteriorated. Then came the increased arrival of immigrants competing for jobs, the housing collapse of 2008, and the covid pandemic of 2019-2022. The optimism felt by African Americans in the late 20^th Century morphed into pessimism, disillusionment and despair in the early 21^st Century.

Four things about the interview stood out for me. The first was that he blamed NAFTA for the loss of good paying jobs beginning in the late 1990s. And this law was championed by Bill Clinton. It was on the Democrat’s watch. The second was the crime bill of 1994, also on Clinton’s watch, which resulted in massive, mandatory incarcerations—especially of people of color– and remains a big problem. The third was his disillusionment with Barack Obama. He talked about how hopeful he was when Obama was elected, expecting great changes, but saw little progress on the ground for Black people and angrily rated Obama’s presidency a failure for people of color. The fourth was his ambivalence about Harris not really counting as an African American due to her mixed racial and family heritage. He did not mention the pushback from the right on DEI and Black Lives Matter, but I suspect that might also be a factor. He also pointed out that Black women seem to have benefitted more than Black men from civil rights initiatives, which is a sticking point for him and many men in his generation and younger. He predicted that Harris would  probably lose enough votes from African American men like him to tip the election to Trump in Georgia.

Who knows how prevalent his attitude is? But in an election as tight as this one is supposed to be, it surely could affect Georgia and perhaps other battleground states. It also suggests to me that the class issue is now just as important as the racial issue and that class disparities now include African Americans—especially African American men. When I was listening last week to the Daily podcast about the disgruntled, white working class, caused by immigration, it occurred to me that the same dynamic must also be affecting the Black working class. This podcast about Black voters suggests that that this is true and means that Democrats can no longer assume African Americans will overwhelmingly vote Democratic.

I get this. But I also pray that while his attitude is understandable, that for this election, he and other men like him will realize how high the stakes are; and when in the voting booth, they will take a deep breath and cast a ballot for Harris-Walz. The election may depend on it. The future of our country may depend on it. It also means that there is unfinished work that must be done to correct the class and racial inequities and grievances in the United States.