How Worried Are You?

Everyone I know is in a state of despair and hopelessness. How could Trump’s decisive victory have happened? What will happen next? Is this the end of democracy in the U.S.? Is it the beginning of a new world order?

Trump’s announcement following his astonishing victory was, “Promises made, promises kept.” We know what these promises are:

  • Appointing cabinet members and top government advisors who have been fully vetted and are 100 percent behind Trump. No more John Kellys, Bill Barrs, Mark Milleys, or Jim Mattises. Any semblance to guard rails will be gone, allowing Trump to be Trump. The job postings now stipulate “only sycophants need apply.” Two names already at the top of the list for key posts are Robert F Kennedy Jr. and Elon Musk.
  • Changing the status of high level federal government workers from protected civil servants to at will employees allowing Trump to fire thousands of persons in management positions in the federal government and replace them with sycophants already vetted by the Heritage Foundation. He also has said he will relocate hundreds of thousands of federal government jobs out of Washington.
  • Attacking the free press and other “enemies of the people.”
  • Arresting and deporting immigrants starting with those who are not documented. There are an estimated 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants in the United States or about 3.5% or the entire U.S. population. He has hinted that he will tap the U.S. military for this job, going from house to house and knocking on the doors of suspected culprits. Those unable to provide valid U.S. passports or credentials will be arrested on the spot and shipped off to massive “holding camps” managed by private prison companies. He will also close the Southern border and eliminate birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants.
  • Imposing tariffs on all imports with huge tariffs on goods produced in China.
  • Punishing his enemies. He has identified many people he will order the FBI to investigate, put them in jail or execute them—the Biden “crime family,” Hilary Clinton, Jack Smith, Liz Chaney, Adam Schiff, Nancy Pelosi, and many others. This will include weaponizing the Justice Department to go after his adversaries. He will also weaponize the IRS to assist in this effort.
  • Replacing the ACA with something better (again!).
  • Reducing “wasteful government spending” on social programs. He has talked about eliminating major government agencies like the Department of Education and drastically reducing the size of the Environmental Protection Agency. If Musk is put in charge, Musk is promising savings of several trillion dollars from cutting these safety net programs.
  • Awarding massive additional tax cuts to “job producers” (mainly billionaires and giant corporations).
  • Gutting regulations and policies addressing climate change and rewarding fossil fuel producers and polluters.
  • Supporting abortion bans.

He has also hinted he will be cozying up to strongman rulers like Putin, Erdogan of Turkey, Orban of Hungary and Kim Jon Un of North Korea and will distance himself from European leaders he does not like. It would not be a surprise to see him get the U.S. out of NATO.  And he has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, which implies facilitating a Russian victory.

And what is most perplexing to me is that none of these promised initiatives addresses the needs of his base—what is now a multi-ethnic working class. Zero! If the ACA is ditched many will lose their health insurance. Food security (SNAP) will be cut. Schools could lose much of their federal funding. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will also be on the table if Musk gets his way. I don’t get it. Except for a small coterie of billionaires anxious for more tax cuts, I can’t see how these policies will be popular with a majority of voters. They certainly will not benefit the working class that made Trump’s victory possible. Trump’s victory was  classic bait and switch.

As noted in my last blog, I attribute Trump’s victory mainly to the discomfort felt by so many in the working class who are struggling to get by. The post covid inflation phenomenon was the primary culprit. That is now under control but came too little too late for many people. They voted for Trump. Two other factors were especially important in this election—social media and fake news. Nowadays people can choose whatever news source they want to hear or watch, and there are more right wing, MAGA news media outlets than there are Democrat leaning ones.

So, what are Harris/Walz supporters and bleeding heart Democrats like me supposed to do? How are we going to get through the next four years? How much of his agenda Trump can deliver on will be a big factor in determining what happens next. And two of Trumps initiatives may not go so well for many in his base–massive immigrant deportation and tariffs.

Trump’s plans include arresting all undocumented immigrants, relocating them to massive holding camps to be constructed by private prison companies, and then deporting them. How is Trump going to pull this off? The vast majority have jobs and may have made friends with their neighbors. Some have lived here for decades. When you see the military banging on your neighbor’s   door, pulling out a screaming family and throwing them into the back of a van, that will make an impression on people. Chances are many people know the family to be hard working and good citizens.  Some may be good friends. Their children may go to the same school. When people realize what is going on, many will be horrified. Some will stand up against it. And resistance will happen millions of times all over the country.

Pressure to end the deportation effort is also likely to come from businesses like hospitality, construction, landscaping, and health care. They depend on immigrants to do much of the heavy lifting  that native-born Americans avoid. Many are undocumented. Farming and agriculture are even more dependent on immigrants in harvesting fruits and vegetables. If they put pressure on the Trump administration to curtail these actions, this could help soften the blow somewhat though the picture of a Nazi-like nightmare unfolding is likely to emerge and tarnish the image of the United States around the world. Lasting damage will have been done.

The other Trump initiative which is likely to get him into trouble with the American population are the heavy tariffs he has pledged on imports, especially on China. Few if any economists think that tariffs are a good idea. They point out that they result in significantly higher prices paid by the U.S. consumer and that if heavy tariffs happen, they will lead to high inflation. Inflation is what got Biden, Harris and the Democrats in trouble. It will also cost many billions to carry this out. Where is that money going to come from?

There will be pressure on Trump to curtail both initiatives. There will also be unhappiness on other initiatives such as shredding the social safety net, eliminating federal departments and agencies, getting rid of the ACA, and the huge deficits which will happen due to the tax cuts for the super-rich. Federal employees will not be happy campers. Environmental advocates will be outraged. Deficit hawks will be angry. That won’t stop Trump, who will do what he wants. Wishful thinking that Trump’s reign of terror will end? Hopefully it will, since I can’t imagine that these policies will be popular with most people—especially his working class base. But then again, democracy itself may be under attack, and what the general population thinks may no longer be an issue.

These are scary times we live in. You might not be worried, but I am.

 

9 thoughts on “How Worried Are You?

  1. “‘I never thought leopards would eat MY face,’ sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party.”

    — Adrian Bott

  2. I think a lot of your points are spot on, unfortunately, Joe!

    I can only respond to your question about how we are going to get through this.

    First, remember the adage at the end of Voltaire’s Candide: Take care of your garden. Let us nourish our souls, minds, and o bodies so that we are stronger for the challenges present and future.

    Second, remember that most of humanity has always lived under despots, tyrants, and dictators. Somehow the greatest works of human civilization were created under these circumstances.

    Third, remember that we can always take care of each other. If things get horrible, we can model our caring for each other on the behavior of courageous heroes and heroines of the past.

    Finally, as progressives, we can learn from what has transpired. To the points you raised in your last post, we need to laser focus on the common person’s day to day struggles, lived experience, feelings, and encountering the world. Facts, nuance, ideals of democracy, equality, tolerance, inclusivity, international leadership, and legitimacy cannot fight against their feelings and gut reactions.

    We need to move away from what Pascal warned Descartes was the arrogance of Reason.

    We could for example look to Frans Hals’ portrait of the Bohemian as a reminder to respect the power of the common.

  3. As my Mother used to say, we are now being served a heaping portion of “humble pie.” All of your two recent blogs are certainly likely. We should however include: “What happened to White Women?”

    Two recent realities also come to mind: Condescension and Lack of respect for the working class. Both David Brooks and our Local, Wa. State Dem. House Rep., Marie Glueskamp Perez, (who just won a second term) who owns a car repair shop with her husband, make a case for this reality. It will be a rough four years and Dems are in for a very bumpy ride.

    Thanks, Karen McMichael

  4. I am suddenly struck by an ethical question that had never occurred to me before: if i can work from another country – which has greater public support for democratic institutions – and legally pay low or no taxes to a Trump led gov’t (which won’t be supporting much public services anyway) is it unethical to continue living/working in the US under Trump? I wouldn’t want to give up my US citizenship (keeping hope alive) but in a pretzel about how hard to try to live/work elsewhere in coming years. It would certainly benefit my mental health…but it’s a heavy lift to make such a move, huge disruption for the family (not just my decision of course), and ethical arguments in both directions. Of course there are multiple levels of government involved, not just federal, so one could ask a parallel question about ethics of moving to a different state. Anyway, this is what i’ve been brooding about since election. I don’t know where the threshold is, but i do believe there is a threshold at which point commitment to democracy is at odds with paying taxes to a neo-fascist (?) government even if (especially if?) that government was democratically elected, with abundant evidence of the intentions of the leader of that government. Indeed, this is exactly how democracies die. I’m not saying our democracy will die, only that we are gunning the engine in that direction. The traditional exit strategy hasn’t worked for us (energetically supporting candidates that do support democracy) so i’m looking for more creative off-ramps from the road we are on.

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