The Trump Team of lackies and sycophants are busy at work so that when Trump is sworn in and addresses the nation on January 20, he will likely announce that his actions are already being carried out “as he speaks.” No fooling around here: Let the Trump MAGA revolution begin! Well, we won’t be able to say we were not forewarned. All these actions are spelled out in the Project 2025 playbook.

And what might those actions be? Trump has already told us. Tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese imports will be first on the list. Many more tariffs will follow for other countries. The military and National Guard will be ordered to begin deporting more than 11 million undocumented residents, many who have lived here for decades, raised their families and have important jobs. Contracts will be signed with major, private prison companies to begin constructing several massive detention camps imprisoning over a half million people each.  War will be declared on “Sanctuary Cities,” withdrawing all federal aid to cities and jurisdictions which resist deportation. Uncooperating mayors and local officials could be arrested and jailed.  I would not be surprised to hear Trump announce that pink slips will be handed out to some 50, 000 career civil servants starting the following day, and that the Justice Department will now report directly to him. Deep cuts to Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), and other social safety net programs will be ordered and Trump will pledge to finally put a dagger in (the now popular) Obamacare. He will cut funding for climate change initiatives, along with many other federal programs, which he says in total will cut over three trillion dollars from government operations. He will say he is further “boosting the economy” by generously reducing taxes for major corporations and billionaires. He will end the war in Ukraine in one day–presumably the next day. Finally, Trump will conclude by proudly announcing that this is just the beginning.

No way, you say. This is just his way of making a splash, pleasing the MAGA faithfuls, and unnerving Democrats and others who hate him.

Okay, I admit to describing a scenario which is designed to get your attention. All these pledges may not happen during Trump’s speech, but there is not an item that I have listed that Trump has not promised or alluded to do at one time or another. We should not be caught off guard.

And your skepticism is also well founded. The good news is that he will not be able to do all or even most of what he pronounces and that many of the policies that he does implement will be economically disastrous and widely unpopular. If he sticks to this ill-conceived agenda, his will be a failed presidency. His tariffs and his deportation initiatives will not only fail, but they will also be disasters. Still, we must brace ourselves for a bumpy sleigh ride that could take us down a slippery slope towards the abyss. Much damage could–and probably will– be done. Here is a brief look at what in my view are the major items.

The Tariffs.

In a word, these are insanity. I am not aware of a single, reputable economist in the country who thinks tariffs are a good idea. The result will increase prices for ordinary people, when China, Mexico and Canada retaliate with their own tariffs, spurring more inflation. The irony is that what got Trump elected this time was due mainly to the unpopular increases in prices that happened because of economic and supply line problems associated with covid. The Trump tariffs will also increase unemployment because when the price of U.S. exports go up, people in those countries will buy fewer U.S. goods and services. Plus, there is only so much Trump can do with tariffs anyway. The Trade Act of 1974 allows the president to impose a tariff up to 15% for only 150 days– but only if there is determined “to be an adverse impact on national security from imports.” After 150 days the tariffs expire unless extended by an action of both Houses of Congress. How likely is that to happen–especially if inflation returns and the world economy is headed for a recession? The tariffs will fail.

Massive Arrests and Deportations of Undocumented Workers.

This is also insanity. I have already addressed this in a recent post. Much needless pain and suffering are going to be caused by this cruel and unnecessary action. Trump is calling for the deportation of 11-12 million people. Nothing on this scale has happened in human history. For reasons noted below, it won’t happen this time either as he envisions, but families will be separated, and lives will be destroyed.

Trump is supposed to start with convicted prisoners.  Many Sanctuary Cities have agreed to cooperate in handing over these people if that is the end of it. When others are rounded up, however, there will be pushback and resistance.

The first outcry will be from the immigrants who are directly affected and others that care about them. Most Americans come in contact with undocumented workers on a regular basis –the person who cuts your grass, checks you out at the grocery store, fixes a broken appliance, provides care to an aging parent, washes the dishes in restaurants you go to, delivers your Amazon purchases, drives  Uber cabs….

Please. We all have met them, and we all depend on them. The thought of what is in store for them is heart breaking.

The second outcry will come from the industries that rely heavily on undocumented workers. According to the New American Economy and the American Immigration Council, many industries depend on these people. Over 36% of the agriculture workforce, 26% of people doing grounds maintenance, 25% involved in food preparation, 23% in the apparel industry, 23% of all cooks, 20% of construction workers and 19% who work in building maintenance are undocumented. If all or most are deported, many hotels and restaurants would close, and much needed housing construction would plummet. Produce would rot in the fields. They also make up a large share of the long term care sector. Assisted living communities, nursing homes and senior living communities would be desperate for workers. So would hospitals. The list is long.

There are other reasons that massive deportation is not feasible. The two most important are costs and timing. A CBS News’ analysis of immigration system in October of 2024 data found the following:

• Apprehending and deporting just one million people could cost taxpayers at least $20 billion for just the first year of a multi-year effort.
• Deporting 11 million people over four years would cost over $220 billion not adjusting for inflation. Also, the deportation effort would require new funding that would have to be approved by a majority of both chambers of Congress, an unlikely event since the Senate Democrats would filibuster such a law.
• The massive deportation camps are likely to take time to secure sites. NIMBYs typically come out of the woodwork to protest when a nonprofit housing group wants to build a homeless shelter in their neighborhood for only a few people. Can you imagine the outrage when plans are announced for a makeshift prison holding over 100,000 people?
• Trump’s first administration, despite promising to deport millions in 2016 deported only 325,660 people during the entire four years he was president. And it wasn’t because they did not try.
• Timing is also not realistic. A mass deportation, depending on its scale, could not possibly be completed in four years. Immigration courts in the U.S. currently face a backlog of 3.7 million cases. It would take the immigration court system eight more years and 700 additional judges — almost double its existing workforce — just to eliminate the existing backlog entirely, according to the Congressional Research Service. And those actions need to happen before the massive arrests and deportations can even begin.

In summary, there is no way that the kind of massive deportation Trump envisions will be feasible. However, some will be rounded up and many will be terrified. It will be a mess.

Cracking Down on Sanctuary Cities.

Sanctuary Cities are jurisdictions that have passed laws preventing local law enforcement from cooperating in the deportation effort. Trump tried to force cities to participate in deportations during his first term in 2016. He was vigorously opposed by the ACLU, which won rulings that there were no grounds for withholding funds already approved by Congress for Sanctuary Cities. However, some courts have ruled differently on this issue. It appears likely that since there is unsettled law in this area, it will be at the center of the first major battle in the deportation initiative and could play a decisive role in determining the outcome, likely to be decided (unfortunately) by the Robert’s Supreme Court. The ACLU is gearing up for a major legal battle. The legal effort could take some time before a Supreme Court decision is made. If the Court rules against the Sanctuary Cities, massive deportations could proceed in earnest, opening the way for a worst case scenario though cost and logistical challenges will remain and substantially limit the number of deportations that will happen.

Politicizing the Civil Service and Weaponizing the Department of Justice.

Trump may  want to fire or demote  thousands of career civil servants and appoint lackies already vetted by the Heritage Foundation, but he will face robust legal opposition spearheaded by the ACLU and supported by the labor union for government workers. This will also take time and money, and there is no guarantee that he will get away with this. Congressional approval is likely to be required, which is not likely to happen.

Shredding the Social and Health Care Safety Net.

Leon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have their eyes focused on cutting funds from programs providing help to poor people. Reductions in these programs will cause great suffering for those who need help the most and will likely be opposed by many people, not just the poor. Trump also has tried to kill the ACA many times and it is now more popular than ever. Many who voted for him depend on it. Pushback and outrage from the American public  is likely to happen when the social safety net is shredded.

Cutting Taxes (again) for the Ultra Rich.

This will be another big push that will be hugely unpopular. How do you justify more tax savings for the ultra-rich while cutting the social safety net and promoting a balanced budget?

Fighting for Fossil Fuels and Curltailing Climate Initiatives.

Trump did little in  his first term on climate change except for getting out of the Paris Accords. While he is likely to repeat his climate change denials, he is not likely to get very far on initiatives which will require Congressional  approval. However, there is a good chance that he will pull the U.S. out of the Paris Accords as he did during his first term.

Trying to Kill Obamacare (Again).

 Really? Give me a break. The program is very popular.

Ending the War in Ukraine in One Day.

 Along with the deportations this could be the most important issue, which could transform NATO and make World War III more likely. How will Trump do this?  Which countries will be next on Russia’s takeover list? Will the U.S. become a Russian ally? And what about Palestine? What will happen to the post World War II American European alliance? It could turn out that Trump will do more damage in foreign policy than domestic policy.

Trusting in Government and the future of Democracy.

Chaos will reign as Trump and his lackies fight to overturn the way the American government has worked in the past. He will ultimately lose but not before he has caused chaos.  He will likely try to make the case for an authoritarian, strongman government. This could turn out to be the biggest fight of all and the biggest threat to our democracy.

 

In summary fasten your seat belts. On January 20, the Trump II drama will begin. Will there be a resistance movement? Will the guard rails hold preventing the worst case scenarios? Will Sanctuary Cities survive? Will democracy itself be able to survive in the U.S.? Will we find ourselves closer to a World War III scenario, which if it happened would mean the end of the Planet Earth as we know it?

 Scary, though interesting, times. My predictions are that Trump will fail for a second time. The inflation (caused by tariffs), the likely mobilization by a Resistance Movement to oppose the massive deportations, the legal guardrails, and the support by ordinary people against his worst and meanest policies will move the country back toward a center left government. Sanctuary Cities will prevail. The massive deportation camps will not get built. Tariffs will fail. And there is the question as to whether he will even survive another four years. He certainly seems to be failing mentally. But still. Serious damage will be done, and the country could find itself weakened and divided.  

 Wishful thinking that the worst scenarios will be avoided? Perhaps, but there is always room for hope.  The most important thing is for those who oppose Trump to organize and resist his actions.  I believe–I pray–our country will muddle through. The movie starts January 20, and no one knows how it will end.

 Stay tuned.