Well, there is nothing like an assassination or an attempted one that will get the attention of the American public. The question is what’s next. While there are many scenarios, let’s look at two which could be said to represent each end of a continuum— hope and despair.

Hope

After an exhaustive investigation, it turns out that the assassin had no obvious political motivation, was in fact a loyal Republican, and acted for personal reasons, mostly mysterious but probably related to mental illness and wanting attention. The attention of the nation turns more to gun control, addressing depression and mental illness, and keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous or disturbed people. Trump has his own come-to-Jesus moment, moderates his position on controversial issues, rejects the 2025 Heritage Foundation playbook, and moves more to the center. This could spell bad news for Democrats; but in moving more to the center, Trump loses a portion of his MAGA base, who now feel abandoned and deceived, and the election prospects remain in a virtual tie.  The Democrats come together and stick with Biden, who becomes the easiest choice given the divisions in the Democratic Party and the uncertainty of how to beat Trump-the-Martyr.

Biden reaches out to Trump, and the two for the first time are on speaking terms. Having Biden on the ticket, of course, is not such good news from my perspective for all the reasons in my last post, but that a new civility is happening is a good thing. For the first time the public has some breathing room as Trump says he is backing away from most of the 2025 radical initiatives. There is one more debate, which turns out to be more civil, focusing on policy issues. Biden does a much better job, and the two shake hands and two months later go into election night, hoping for a victory but realizing that should the voters choose the opponent, the country is not headed toward an existential crisis. Both candidates agree to accept the results. Moderation prevails as the two candidates morph into center left and center right candidates, remain on speaking terms. and advocate for what each considers best policies for the country. MAGAs sit on the sidelines and pout. Biden wins by a small margin. Think Obama versus McCain in 2008 or Obama versus Romney in 2012. Happy ending. The country breathes a long sigh of relief.

I know that some will argue that anyone who holds such a Pollyannish view should see a mental health professional immediately.

Despair

Trump, now Trump-the-Martyr, initially backs off from some of  the most extreme 2025 playbook initiatives but realizes he risks losing his MAGA base and finds moderation temperamentally impossible. He turns up the heat, accusing Biden of personally directing the attempted assassination. The internet is jammed with posts from supporters who claim to have definitive proof that Biden was behind the assassination attempt. The only reason that they do not demand that Biden step aside immediately is that they believe Biden will be the easiest to defeat. In order not to offend battleground state voters, Democrats pull the negative, most damning ads against Trump and are not able to come up with a replacement candidate for Biden that the various camps can agree on. The second debate is more one sided than the first. Yet by this time it is too late for the Democrats to make a change. Trump warns that he will never accept election results unless he wins. MAGAs go crazy and become even more openly hostile to Democrats, whom they refer to as “Commie Thugs.” Trump vigilante militias form to stand by along with the Proud Boys and Oath keepers in case the results are close, which they are not. Trump wins by a landslide ushering in an era of mass deportations, vigilante justice, the victory of Russia over Ukraine, and the breakup of NATO and the world order. Democracy dies in the United States. Far left groups start to form to fight the Trump regime, and the country finds itself on the verge of full scale civil war.

These two scenarios represent the extremes. We will likely end up with something in between but what? These are the times we find ourselves in on July 16, 2024. Buckle your seatbelts. It looks like it is going to be a rough ride.

What do you think? What should we Dems do about the Biden replacement question? How can we  defeat Trump?