Mystery Solved: When and Why We Dems Lost the Working Class

I am an avid listener of The New York Times “The Daily” podcast. On Tuesday, October 8, Michael Barbaro interviewed a Times reporter who has been following the 2024 presidential election campaign for some time and who has a theory of why the working class jumped ship from the Democrats, starting several decades ago, and accelerating in the early 2000s as became evident in the 2016 “upset election.”

 For quite a while, I have been perplexed by this phenomenon. Why would working people in 2024 vote for Trump, whose policies when he was president did not benefit blue collar workers but rather large corporations and the super-rich, who saw their taxes plummet? The Republicans have been anti-labor and pro-business for decades. They have fought Obamacare and efforts to strengthen the social safety net. What is going on?  I sort of understand the rebellion of the white working class and the evangelicals who are driven in part by culture wars and belief that DEI, “Black Lives Matter,”  pro-immigration and pro-abortion policies have gone too far, offending their religious and cultural values. Trump in his own words has said as much: “I am your retribution.”

So, I get this, but there are many others in the country who also are blue collar workers and who are not white. And 60 percent of our work force in the United States are people without a college degree. Many do very important—and difficult– work for which they get paid barely a living wage. What about them?

The reporter argued in the interview that the reason for the great discontent of the American working class can be explained in one word: NAFTA– The North American Free Trade Act, which passed the Congress in 1993 and became law in 1994.

The reporter went on to cite facts and figures over the decades about the job losses which followed the enactment of NAFTA, which lifted trade barriers first with Canada and Mexico followed by additional free trade legislation including China and other cheap labor countries. When the NAFTA bill was being debated during the election of 1992, Ross Perot, the third party candidate, railed about the “great sucking sound” which would happen when good paying jobs in the industrial Mid West and across the country were shipped  off to Mexico where there was cheap labor. Bernie Sanders and several other progressives and center-left Democrats protested vehemently as well but not enough to keep the bill from passing.

While I can remember the NAFTA debate, it is a bit foggy. What I remember most is that I had no idea whether it was a good or bad idea. The economists along with other experts as I recall tended to support lifting trade barriers, but at the time who was to know? And for that matter, the question is still unresolved since a strong argument can be made that it has helped our economy remain robust  and has benefitted many countries around the world. What is also now clear according to the Times reporter is  the collateral damage that has hammered the working class in the United States.

It turned out that Perot was right. Thousands of businesses downsized or closed in the U.S. and opened factories in Mexico and then in other low wage countries around the world resulting in the loss of millions of good paying, blue collar jobs (with benefits) in the U.S.–over 4.5 million according to the Department of Commerce.  The exodus of factories and manufacturing jobs might have happened to some extent anyway. However, NAFTA was responsible for accelerating the decline. And the argument goes, there were some good outcomes. Prices of goods manufactured in low wage countries tended to be low, providing some relief for people with modest incomes shopping at Walmart and Target. And the economies of countries like China and Mexico have benefitted immensely, bringing down the world-wide poverty rate. But as for the American workers that did the heavy lifting, not so much, and for many it has been a disaster. No wonder many are upset. I would be too. Through no fault of their own, opportunities to earn a decent living have collapsed for many workers with no college degree and who find that they now must compete with immigrants for jobs that do not even pay a living wage.

The crowning moment, the reporter said, came during the presidential debate in 2016 when Trump blamed NAFTA and Bill Clinton for the job losses and Hillary responded by confirming her support for her husband and shrugged off the question. Game over. Despite his many egregious faults, Trump is a marketer and could sense the simmering anger and resentment of the working class. According to the reporter, this was the moment that sealed the fate for the Democrats.

The highlight of the podcast, however, were the comments of an African American factory worker whose life had been upended when his employer, Master Lock, closed, sending him and his friends scuttling, trying to find jobs which paid well, and provided health insurance and a pension. They were unable to find anything even close. His union factory job had enabled him to buy a house and provide for his family. It instilled pride and a feeling of self-worth. All that was gone when Master Lock closed down.  When asked if he was a Democrat or a Republican, he said that while he used to be a Democrat, he would never vote for a Democrat again because most of this happened on their watch. Clinton was the president  who started it all. What happened made it possible for  his employer and so many others to move their factories to Mexico. He was quick to point out that he was not a Republican either. He thought Trump was “a crook” and that the Republicans were probably even worse. Rather, he was disillusioned and alienated and would not vote at all. And this was also true, he said, for his African American friends and co-workers. Everyone was fed up.

Listening to his sad story was an Ah Ha moment for me. Of course! No wonder so many working people feel abandoned by the Democrats. Their path to the middle class was roadblocked with no good options readily available for finding a new pathway.  Listening to this guy honestly and painfully describe his experience, I could not help feeling empathy. And this has been happening everywhere in the United States for decades—especially across the industrial Mid West and in the battleground states. 

One could argue that all is not lost for us Democrats. Not everyone who lost a good paying union job has become a Republican, but still, many in the working class feel abandoned by the Democrats, who they feel do not care about ordinary working people since many believe that now the party has become the party of the college educated elite. Many blue collar workers do not see a happy place for themselves if there is no change of course. For this reason, they are going to vote for Trump or are not going to vote. But sitting out this election could make all the difference. Will we Dems pay the price, or will we pull this one out of the fire giving the country a chance to try to level the playing field and right some of the wrongs that have happened to the American working class? The stakes have never been higher.

6 thoughts on “Mystery Solved: When and Why We Dems Lost the Working Class

  1. Great article, Joe. So as Dems do we need to (try to) reverse the NAFTA legislation.? Has Biden significantly rebuilt industry and increased jobs for the blue collar working class? It doesn’t seem so.

    1. I think what is needed is a robust policy focusing on retraining, apprenticeship, labor representation on corporate boards and a higher minimum wage, closer to a true living wage–a new “industrial policy,” if you will, but agree that this is easier said than done. Germany seems to be doing a pretty good job on this, but it is also true that the Neo Nazi Party is raising its ugly head again….I do not think tariffs are the answer.

  2. Thanks for your post, Joe! I understand what’s being said. The challenge is that the overall data doesn’t seem to back up a story that Democrats have been bad for the economy or for working families, especially compared to Republicans…

    I copied this from the New York Times:

    “Since 1949, annual real GDP growth is 1.2% faster during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations.

    Total job growth has averaged 2.5% annually under Democrats, while it’s barely over 1% annually under Republicans.

    Business investment is higher during Democratic administrations, with investment growth more than double the rate than during Republican ones.

    Families in the lowest 20% of income experience 188% faster income growth during Democratic administrations.

    Of the eleven recessions since 1950, nine have begun under Republican administrations. Of the five since 1980, all have been under the GOP.

    The 1929 and 2008 depressions both happened with incompetent, anti-tax, anti-regulatory Republican presidents leading the nation over the cliffs.

    Trump was the only president on record to have lost jobs, with 2.7 million fewer American jobs when he left office than when he entered.

    By contrast, the United States has added nearly 16 million jobs since Biden & Harris took office, with the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in five decades.

    Of the 51 million new American jobs since 1989, 50 million of them have been created under Democratic administrations.

    Inflation was high following the pandemic, but it happened globally. It was even higher in Europe, peaking at 10.6% in Oct. 2022. Inflation is now back down below 3% around the world.

    Bottom line: Republican presidents are lousy for the economy, and have been nowhere near as beneficial as Democratic presidents.

    Trump and Project 2025 would only make this disastrously worse.”

    1. Agree, Jim. I still do not fully understand but it is certainly true that a lot of Americans are not happy campers. I think a lot has to do with low wages and having to struggle to make ends me…..

  3. This discussion is so important and I think crucial for Democrats to address head on. Data does suggest Democrats are much better for overall American economic and job growth. And this, like so many complex issues, doesn’t have to be binary. It can also be true that many Americans were terribly hurt by NAFTA.
    I do think Biden has done a lot for men in the working class during his tenure, particularly in the area of green jobs. It is also true that much more needs to be done, especially for those families who lost their footing on their path upwards some 20-30 years ago.
    This all ties in to a deep national cancer of male economic shame. That is what Harris and Walz must address vigorously. Harris has said that she wants to ensure that folks don’t need a college degree to have the skills for a well paying job that supports a family. It would be great if she could also work with unions to protect the few pensions that still exist and create or reinstate others.
    It would be a smart for Democrats to put the issue of non-college educated male jobs front and center in their campaigns. After all, as we’ve seen with the data about gender imbalances in college attending kids, fewer and fewer young men think it is worth going to college – and if it doesn’t become easier for them to support their loved ones, Trump and his like will continue to tap into their loss of pride and anger.

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