Dear Mr. President,

Mr. President, first, congratulations on the strong mid-term showings. We Dems beat all the odds due in part to your campaigning and championing the cause of democracy. You also get kudos for  the success you have had in getting significant legislation passed in a divided Congress and a divided country—against all the odds. Yes, I know your approval ratings are low because food and gas cost more, rents are up, the stock market is jittery, and some fear a recession,  but you got us through the 2020-2021 covid outbreaks and helped millions of companies and people avoid bankruptcy . You also championed progressive legislation on infrastructure, combating climate change, lowering prescription drug prices, and raising taxes on large corporations. These are huge accomplishments. Unemployment remains at historic lows and wages are up. You have been a world leader in the opposition to Russia in its war on Ukraine. You have restored respect by world leaders for the office of President of the United States.

I know you have a lot on your to-do list to accomplish in the next two years and despite hostile Republican opposition to basically everything you will propose, I am confident that you will continue to move our country forward.

Bottom line, Mr. President, you have been and are a great President. The historians will be kind to you, even if you are not able to get as much done in the next two years. While it is true that you are not the most charismatic President we have ever had, your humility, common decency and ability to relate to the average American are welcomed traits not often found in a President of the United States. Your empathy for those in distress—due in part to the personal losses you have experienced—resonates with others and has helped many who have suffered personal loss. In my book you are a hero.

Now I know that you are contemplating whether you will  run for a second term and have hinted that you are going to announce that you will. Mr. President, with respect , I plead to you: Don’t do it. Just say no!

Here is the reason: You are too old. In a couple of weeks you will turn 80. I can say this because we are almost  the same age. You were born November 30, 1942. I was born the same year on April 1. I am eight months older.

Anyone our age knows that there are issues associated with old age and aging.  When we were born in 1942, our life expectancy was 77. We have outlived more than half the people born that year. I know social class, gender, race and income also affect longevity; and for this reason I note that  about two thirds of of my high school and college classmates also have beaten the odds and are still alive. But that does not mean we are in great health. Many of my friends are dealing with serious health issues—like Parkinson’s, cancer, strokes, heart disease, melanoma, and dementia.

Look, I just got a physical this week and I am grateful to report that I am in good health for an 80-year old. I still get in my 15-17 miles of walking (albeit slowly) every week and with one exception (not life threatening), do not have any serious health issues. However, if I am sitting in a low chair or seat with no arms, it is a challenge to get up. My balance is not what it used to be even in my 70s, and there is no way without risking my life that I can manage to climb or descend stairs without hanging onto a railing. I still have my marbles but forget names occasionally that I should remember. Hey, this is normal aging.  This is what we octogenarians have to deal with. Certainly, you know what I am talking about.  This is the way it works on the planet Earth. We humans—like all animals—have a beginning and an end. For someone in their 80s, the end is getting closer. Sure, you may feel ok now, but things could and often do change in a heartbeat.

The four factors I think that you need to keep in mind as you make your decision to run again are these: energy level, stamina, mental acuity, and judgement. Committing to run again would mean six more years in the hardest and most demanding job on the planet Earth. No former President has been that old or even close to it. If you win the next election and finish out your second term, you will be 86 when it is time to retire. Ask your team of doctors what the chances are that someone who is in pretty good shape for his age at age 80 will sail through until his mid 80s with no changes to overall health and capabilities. I am not a doctor, but I would suggest the answer is zero. Just spend some time at any retirement community and check out how the 70-somethings are doing compared to the 80-somethings. That is the business I  was in. Trust me, there is a big difference.

Mr. President, to put yourself through this and to put the country through this as they wonder, as is natural, whether you are still playing with a full deck, just does not make sense. And what about other world leaders as they monitor every move you make and ask the same questions about the leadership ability  of someone in his early to mid  80s. It is not fair to yourself or to your country. A statesman—which you are—would say thanks but no thanks. It is time to pass the baton to a younger generation.

Now to put this in perspective, I checked out on the web the ages of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 Companies. Their jobs do not begin to compare to yours in terms of stress, stamina, and the need for good judgement. The average age of a Fortune 500 CEO is 57. Only one is older than you are now—Warren Buffet and that does not really count (He is 91.). Only a handful are over 70. Most retire at age 65, as is required by many companies. The reasons for this  I have just spelled out.

And for those who argue that age should not be a factor, I also checked out the life expectancy on the internet  of a white male, age 80. The answer is seven years. Hey, some would argue that proves there is no risk associated with serving a second term, right? After serving another four years, you will still have a full year to spare. No problem. Why worry?

Please.

There are three other final reasons that you should not run again. The first is that you probably will  not win a second term. Now if Trump  wins the nomination, which I think is now unlikely, you may have a chance, but God help the country if Trump is the Republican nominee. Your opponent would more likely  be DeSantis or  perhaps another Ivy League renegade like Cruz  or a fake moderate like Youngkin. DeSantis, now considered to be the most likely, is young by comparison (44), smart, vigorous, charismatic, and very conservative though not a total  Trump wannabe. DeSantis would likely beat you. So would  Youngkin (55) or someone like him. Mr.President, it all has to do with age, not political positions or qualifications. A vigorous candidate in his or her 40s or 50s is very likely to beat an old guy who is in his early 80s unless the younger candidate is a nutcase, which is certainly possible in the Republican Party, but you can’t count on it.  

The second reason is that second terms are for most presidents more challenging and less successful than their first. Think about your eight years with Obama. The second term was spent mainly trying to preserve the ACA and putting out fires. George W. had the disastrous Iraq insurgency to deal with. Bill Clinton had his Lewinsky affair. Johnson’s experience with Vietnam was so bad he chose not to run again. Reagan had his Iran-Contra scandal. Lesson learned: quit while you are ahead. If the next two  years of  your first term are as good as your first two, there will be a favorable place for you in the history books. Don’t risk a second term.

The third and perhaps most important is that it is not fair to your party. It is time for a younger generation to step up to the plate. There are lots of younger, fabulous leaders in the Democratic Party, with intelligence, compassion, good judgement and fire in the belly. They are dedicated to the same progressive ideals that you are. I think of past Presidents like John Kennedy, Obama, Clinton—they were  all young when they were first elected and all strong and (for the most part) successful presidents. It is that time again now.

In fact, if you did decide to run, it could have a devastating  impact on your party if you were challenged in the primary. Many loyal Democrats feel the same way I do. It could happen.

It is time to pass the baton to a younger generation. It is their turn now. Make it happen, Mr. President. You can do it. I hope and pray you will make the right decision.

If you will indulge my informality, allow me to close with this unsolicited but fundamentally sound advice: Hey, Joe, just say No!

Your admirer,

Joseph T.  Howell

Fellow Octogenarian

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Because Embry was away election night attending a convention, I was so apprehensive that I could not survive the evening alone that I invited three couples here at the Kennedy-Warren to help me through what I thought was likely to be a wake. They all came, armed with liquid medications, prepared for the worst. Their presence made a huge difference for which I am grateful.

Friends, it could have been a disaster. My acquaintance, Swarthmore, had warned me that this might be  the beginning of the end of democracy as we have known it if the outcome was a Red Wave with election deniers and MAGA Republicans winning most of their races. But occasionally life brings pleasant surprises. This was one of those evenings. The election results of the 2022 mid-terms will be written up in the history books and read by future generations.

No, we can’t call the results a total success, and two Senate seats are still up for grabs, but what could have happened did not happen. We dodged a bullet.

What could have happened was that the fanatical Trumpers and election deniers got elected across the board, and we Democrats got thrashed. Afterall, when there is an unpopular president, the mid-term elections historically have been catastrophic for the party in power. Democrats in Obama’s first mid-term election lost several Senate seats and over 60 House seats. Bill Clinton’s experience was not much better. Pundits on Fox News were predicting the greatest thrashing in U.S. history with the “Red Wave” decisively taking over both the Senate and the House with huge gains, setting the stage for a Trump comeback and essentially bringing the Biden Administration to its knees.

What  did happen was this: The Senate is likely to hold as Swarthmore predicted and the Republicans will gain at most only a handful of seats in the House. Even more important very few of the election deniers and avid MAGA Republicans got elected. This is true not only for governors and representatives in Congress but, even more important, for state secretaries of state, and state attorneys general, the people  who are responsible for conducting future elections and doing the vote counting. A majority of the candidates Trump supported did not win. Democracy survived. The fingers in the dike held—at least for now.

The other factor that has not gotten much attention is that none of these Republican losers are calling the election fraudulent and rigged—at least not yet. If this holds, it could be the brightest sign of all that our election process will survive the Trump onslaught. It certainly should dawn on some people as ironic because the same election procedures were in place for the 2022 mid-term elections as for the 2020 presidential election. Will we get past these false claims about the “big steal” and move on? Anyone’s guess, but surely a big deal if the false accusations about election fraud remain dormant.

So what happened?

According to most of the post-election analyses that I have read or listened to, what distinguished the 2022 mid-terms from previous elections was the  large increase in the number of women voting and an even larger increase in voting from younger voters, the  Gen Zs. The reasons for this are due mainly to three things—the Dobbs Decision by the Supreme Court on abortion, the threats to democracy caused by January 6 Insurrection, and the Maga Republicans claims of election fraud. I would add a fourth factor—the fear of accelerated climate change if the Republicans are calling all the shots. Were it not for this increase in the voting block of women and younger people, the election results would likely have been much closer to the Red Wave most Republicans were predicting.

For this I suppose credit goes to the Supreme Court for its outrageous decision on abortion  and to Trump for his continuing  in-your-face lies, outrageous claims and accusations on line, and his stirring up the pot. While his base will probably never abandon him, more Republicans appear to be getting tired of his antics and weary of  the chaos that goes along with it. His base is not enough to get him reelected. Could this mean he will fade? Probably unlikely, but we can always hope. But then there is DeSantis waiting in the wings, but I am not going to let that spoil the stew for now.

So, yes, election night was a good night for us Dems—especially when compared to what it could have been. Are we home free? Hardly. You can count on the Republicans even with a tiny majority in the House to pursue the hearings on Hunter Biden and anyone else they can come up with in hopes of embarrassing the President, the  impeachment of President Biden on the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and using the debt ceiling issue to coerce the Democrats into submission on issues like fighting climate change and trying to level the playing field when it comes to race and class inequalities. It will be nasty. But it won’t be as bad as it might have been and for that we can be thankful.

 

 

 

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To the reader: introducing Swarthmore (“Swarth”) Gilligan. Mr.Gilligan is a fictitious resident at the Kennedy-Warren Apartments where Embry and I live, who I recently learned is an agent of the British Intelligence Agency, who is in charge of analyzing countries the Brits consider at risk of losing their democracy. Before coming to the U.S., he was in Turkey, Hungary, and Poland. He has spent the last several months interviewing experts and I thought would be a great person to talk to if he would agree, which he kindly did reminding me that our meeting had to be clandestine. What follows is a transcript of the imagined conversation that we had on a park bench in Dupont Circle where the very British Mr. Gilligan was wearing a trench coat, dark glasses, and a Dick Tracy hat.

Me: So, Swarth, thanks for granting the interview, and my first question is  how serious a situation do you think the U.S. is in now right now, and is there a chance that we are on the verge of a civil war as some are warning?

Swarth:  Very serious, and, yes, while I do not believe that a civil war is certain, democracy as you have known it in the United States is certainly in danger. January 6^th was just a shot across the bow. You have two political parties that demonize each other. One of these political parties supports an autocrat for “supreme leader” of the country, refuses to accept election results when the opposition party wins, and turns a blind eye when violence is used to achieve their ends. Furthermore, many on that side are fueled with religious fervor and believe they are doing the will of God. I have studied similar situations in other countries, and the ingredients are all in place for a toxic stew leading possibly to the end of democracy in the United States. The other political party is trying to play by the old rules and is being outmaneuvered.

Me: How important will the midterms be in determining what happens next?

Swarth: What happens in the midterm elections will have a huge impact on the future of your country. This election is one of the most important in the history of the United States.

Me: So, what do you think is going to happen?

Swarth: Well, I have spent a lot of time studying the situation, thinking about it, and reporting back to my government, and here is my assessment regarding your midterms and what will follow:

There will be a stalemate, but the seeds leading to disaster will have been planted. The Republicans will take the House by a dozen or so seats, but the Democrats will hang on by the skin of their teeth and keep 50 seats in the Senate. It will be a mess, and nothing which you would call “progressive” will get done for the next two years. Hearings will begin immediately in the House where Hunter Biden will be the first focus of attention in order to humiliate your President. The Republicans in the House will then go after Merrick Garland and a host of others including the President of the United States, whom they will impeach. Tit for tat, you know, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. The House will pass all sorts of legislation– making abortion illegal under federal law, cutting taxes on the rich and big corporations, cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and most social programs, rolling back initiatives on climate change, blocking the IRS in its efforts to nail billionaire tax cheats, killing what is left of affirmative action, spending more money on prisons , and trying to kill virtually everything that Biden accomplished in his first two years. But little will come of it because they will not have the votes in the Senate; and even if they do win a majority in the Senate, the filibuster would keep onerous bills from passing. Biden would veto the terrible bills that got through Congress. Because of the filibuster and the presidential veto, nothing too bad will happen on the legislative side.

Me: Well, that makes me feel a little better.

Swarth: Don’t mistake my comments as suggesting that the Republicans can’t cause serious trouble. The hearings and the legislation I just mentioned will hurt—plus, they will find many other ways of making life miserable for Biden and the Democrats. They are already threatening to use the debt ceiling as a way of forcing the Democrats to surrender because if the House does not vote to raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. will be forced to default on paying Treasury obligations putting the entire global financial system in disarray. Believe me, my country is very concerned, but I do not believe it will come to this, which could be called the nuclear option.

Me: Not a happy situation, if you ask me.

Swarth: But here is the thing: All eyes will turn immediately to the 2024 election, and the focus will be gearing up for the showdown. Trump will run again and likely so will Biden, but this time it will be different because Trump will win, along with more right-wing extremists and sycophants, who will be running for House and Senate seats, and this time the election will be stolen.  It will be stolen because following the 2022 elections the foxes will be in the chickencoops. Watch the races for governor and secretary of state in the battleground states. These seeds of disaster are just surfacing now at a time when your Democrats can’t do much to stop them. Democrats have been outfoxed. Red state legislatures and some purple states will pass laws giving more power to states and localities to make their own rules regarding voting and vote counting.

Republicans now control two-thirds of all legislatures in the U.S. Most Republican candidates for the offices responsible for running elections are Republican election deniers and avid Trumps supporters, who believe the 2020 election was stolen and probably will fight the results of elections where Democrats win in the midterms. They are already saying that if they win in 2022, they will replace voting machines with paper ballot counting. And whom are they going to choose to count the ballots? Super-partisan Republicans, of course.

Game over! Plus there is already evidence that vigilante efforts are being organized by 2020 election deniers to intimidate voters from the opposing side to stay away from the polls. It is a frightening picture. 

These actions will shake your country at its roots and tear it apart. It will lead to what I call “the Great Reckoning”—the existential moment when your country must deal with these actions and take decisive steps that assure that your democracy survives. If the voting process becomes rigged–which is not the case now but will be in 2024 if the foxes remain in the hen house– democracy in the United States of America is doomed. I have seen this happen in other countries. Look at what just happened in Israel. Look at Turkey and Hungary and even Poland.

Me: Oh, my goodness! But what about civil war, which you hear so much about nowadays?

Swarth: There are three scenarios regarding the 2024 election, each very different with different outcomes that could happen. I have already predicted a Trump victory in 2024, not because he will win fair and square but because the election process will be compromised. If it is not Trump, you can be sure it will be a Trump wannabe– DeSantis, Cruz, or Hawley or worse.

First scenario: Trump wins. This will not cause a civil war because the guys with the guns will be in power. What it will cause is a police state. There will be turmoil with the Left pushing back with lots of demonstrations and some violence. Trump will declare martial law, deputize  militia armies like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers and others as his personal “presidential guard”; and since he will have control of both Houses of Congress and the Supreme Court, he will be able to get pretty much what he wants. What you thought were Constitutional guarantees like free speech and the right to assemble will slowly disappear. The rigged voting process will lock in Republican control for the foreseeable future. Democracy over! Efforts to curb climate change will come to a virtual halt. You can understand  why my country is very concerned about that.

Second scenario: Biden–or some other Democrat–wins. Even though I am not predicting this, it could happen.  But this is when civil war in your country breaks out. It will make your January 6^th rebellion look like a church picnic. I know from my intelligence gatherings that this is what the Right Wing militias are preparing for now. They are stockpiling large arsenals and beginning intensive training for an insurgency. Some are reported to be trying to secure nuclear weapons.  Your FBI knows a lot about this as does British Intelligence. The problem is you can’t do much now to stop it, given the lack of gun control laws in most states. How the civil war turns out will depend mainly on what the U.S. military does. Since we know that many in the military are already Trump supporters, it is an open question. If the military and national guards do not bolt to what I would call the Dark Side, then ultimately I believe democracy in your country would survive, but it would be bloody.

Third scenario: America comes to its senses now. You might call this the Liz Cheney scenario. Enough elected Republicans come to realize that their country is on thin ice and that very bad things could happen. The two parties agree to a temporary truce to put in place guardrails that will keep the United States from crashing over a cliff. The guardrails are these:

• Passing federal legislation requiring all states to follow strict guidelines that prevent voting fraud and prevent limiting voter access for all federal, state, and local elections.
• Passing federal legislation outlawing false information on all social media relating to all elections and all candidates.
• Passing federal legislation limiting the amount of money that individuals and “nonprofit” groups and PACs can spend on elections, way too much of which you Americans call “Dark Money.”
• Taking tough governmental actions now against violent extremist groups that are planning to overthrow the government. I know that this is difficult given your Constitution; but unless you can get on top of this, you won’t have a Constitution.

Also it would not hurt to ditch or at least reform the electoral college process and gerrymandering. You are supposed to live in a democratic republic where individual votes are supposed to make a difference. That is not always the case in your country.  I know that it is a bit of a stretch to think that all these reforms could happen. But some of them must happen–especially the first one, if you want to avert disaster. Long term all of them need to happen.

There are probably more things that could be done—like addressing the root causes of your national discontent– but if your country does not put in place tough laws and rules now that assure free and fair elections going forward, you are on the path to losing your democracy, and the whole world will suffer. My country is surely concerned as are many others.

Me: So what are the odds that we will come to our senses and do something about this?

Swarth: Sorry, got to go. See you at the Kennedy-Warren bar sometime soon?

 

 

 

 

 

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If you have been following this blog, you know that I am an unapologetic, bleeding-heart Democrat. I have never voted for a Republican as best as I can remember and have been accused in the past of falling into the “Yellow Dawg” category, voting for a Democrat who happened to be a yellow dog. I have also been inclined to support Democrats financially who are in tight races in swing states. Since the 2022 Mid Terms are probably the most important midterm elections in our time, I have spread around my modest contributions to a lot of candidates.

For this I have paid a price. As the saying goes, no good deed goes unpunished.

Since I started sending money to progressive Democratic candidates via the internet last spring, I have gotten lots of text messages and emails and phone calls, but the harassment has grown exponentially over the past several weeks as election day nears. Even though I have gone through the “Unsubscribe” exercises and “Stop” exercises a couple times, somehow the candidates keep finding a way around this and keep badgering me. Plus, the list of email senders keeps expanding. All it takes I conclude is to give money to one candidate and your name and contact information become viral again and passed around to any candidate looking for a soft touch.

Here are the average daily statistics for last week:

• Around 20 calls a day to our land line, where the “DNC” name often comes up or the message “unnamed caller.” I hardly ever answer these calls, but the few that I have answered have been from political campaigns. No one ever leaves a message.
• About 15 text messages a day from desperate candidates, almost all of which are doom and gloom, “no way I can win without more help from you” kind of thing.
• About 30 email messages a day. Ah, the emails. They are the worst. A typical email starts off with something like, “Joe, I am weeping, literally weeping, there is no hope, send money now…” or “Joe, are you still a Democrat? What has happened?” or “Joe, who do like more, Trump, or Biden? Please take the survey, which will only be counted if you send more money.…” or “Joe, could you chip in $3 to help me avoid defeat by a terrible opponent who is stomping me?” And then when you go to the donation part, there is no place for a $3 contribution, the lowest amount being $25. Well, that is not so bad, but why then ask for only three bucks? Bait and switch.

As is evident, I am on the verge of election fatigue/mental breakdown. I get about five emails a day from Fetterman, even more from Tim Ryan, some only minutes apart. Stacy Abrams and Raphael Warnock are not far behind. Then there is Cheri Beasley (NC), Mandela Barnes (Wisconsin), Maggie Hassan (NH), Charlie Crist (Florida), Mark Kelly (Arizona) and of course the multiple emails from Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, James Carville, Move On, the Lincoln Project, and the National Democratic Party, the Democratic Senate group, the Democratic House group and from countless other organizations and candidates, some that I have never even heard of. The winner of this disparate group was a guy wanting $5 for his campaign to be a dog catcher in a small town in Oregon. Well, ok, not really, but you get the point.

I do not know who is responsible for all of this, but I think at some point it must become counter productive and borders on being outrageous. Perhaps research shows that pleas of desperation and doom and gloom get better results than upbeat positive messages like, “Joe, thanks so much for your support in the past and because of you and others like you our campaign is going great, and we are within striking distance of a win. Could you help get us across the finish line?” Not a single message that I can remember is even close to this. In fact, I do not believe I have received one “thank you” from any candidate that I have given money to. They know I have contributed and have this information. It is true that my contributions are not large, but still.

Shame on you, Democrats! I will not abandon you, but I have to say that if this is the best you can do, no wonder we are in deep trouble, likely to lose the House, and the Senate is still a toss up.

 

 

 

 

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This week Embry and I attended what I would call an old fashioned, Cleveland Park dinner party. Cleveland Park is the Washington neighborhood we lived in for over 40 years before moving to the apartment house we live in now only a couple of blocks away.

This was only the third time in the last three years of Covid quarantine that we have been invited out to someone’s house or apartment for dinner. It reminded me of the dinner parties of old when we were young and just beginning to make our way in Washington. The hostess, a former neighbor in Cleveland Park, who now lives in a stunning apartment in a fabulous, iconic apartment house not far from our old neighborhood, prepared a splendid feast and invited one couple who are our close friends and another couple we had never met. Conversation was lively and interesting, and it turned out the guests we did not know were classmates of Embry’s brother at Yale Law School in the late 1960s. Due to Covid, old age, and the vagaries of life, these types of evenings rarely happen anymore. I could not help thinking back 40 plus years when they used to occur once or twice a month, and, alas, how much I loved them then, and still miss them now.

In 1972 Embry and I moved to Washington from Chapel Hill where we had both been graduate students.  Our son, Andrew, was about two at the time and Jessica was not born yet. We packed our old Toyota station wagon to the brim.  Minette, our beloved cat, a combination Siamese and Russian Blue, sat in the backseat next to Andrew. This was a time when a young couple with two entry level jobs could afford to live in a close-in, DC neighborhood.  We bought a single family, fixer-upper next to the Cleveland Park Public Library and within a mile of the National Cathedral, even closer to the National Zoo, and not far from several highly regarded schools. It was then and remains now an ideal urban neighborhood with large, single-family homes under towering shade trees, stately apartment buildings, and only a short walk to the Metro and neighborhood shopping and restaurants. The only difference is that today, a young couple with entry level jobs can’t afford to live there. We paid $40,000 for our house in 1972, a rounding error of what it would be worth today. We lived in that house for over 40 years and never regretted it for a moment.

But as attractive as the neighborhood was then and continues to be, what I remember most are the neighbors and friends we had while living there. We moved in before the neighborhood had the cachet it has now and at a time when a lot of people our age were moving in. The time was magical: All these 30-somethings moving to Washington—many ending up in our neighborhood. They were from all over the country, mostly Type-As, some with degrees from elite colleges and universities, and most with graduate or professional degrees. And most of us had the same goal—to make a difference, to leave a mark, to be in the fray, and to be where the action is. Making money and social status may have been a factor for some but never mentioned. Almost everyone we knew  was a Democrat, liberal, smart, energetic, and focused on careers. Most were couples with young children. Women were just as educated, focused and ambitious as men. They had their law or advanced degree, and they landed the same types of career-track jobs as their husbands. Of course, there were exceptions though few were stay-at-home moms or housewives, and the women that did not have career-track jobs were usually neighborhood activists and community leaders.

It was fabulous! How often do you get a chance to live in a neighborhood where so many people are  interesting and smart, have similar values, and are on a pathway to try to leave a mark? Naturally, there were a whole lot of lawyers, some with degrees from famous law schools and many involved in the political arena, but there were also a whole lot of others just as interesting and just as smart—architects, engineers, artists, teachers, college professors, policy wonks, civil servants, journalists, writers, activists, legislative aids, nonprofit workers, and researchers. There were few businessmen or women (except for realtors) and only a couple of doctors. Of course, there were older people who had been living in Cleveland Park for some time who did have traditional business jobs and  careers but few of those types  were moving in at the time we arrived or  became part of our social network. I did not know anyone who belonged to a country club or had any desire to join one.  I knew only a handful of Republicans.

However, Cleveland Park was not entirely  the Never-never land I am suggesting. Every neighborhood has its kooks and eccentrics, and Cleveland Park had its share. I am especially  sad to confess that almost all our friends were white, many from privileged backgrounds, and that still applies to the neighborhood today. Lingering de facto segregation continues and remains a thorn in our national flesh. There is some truth, I suppose, in the complaints by Trump supporters and others that we “progressives” in Washington are a bunch of coastal elites born with silver spoons in our mouths and insensitive to “ordinary people.” Despite these criticisms, Embry and I loved the people and the place. I make no apologies.

And this is where the dinner parties come in. That is how you met some of these interesting and engaging people, who might live up the street or around the block. We would get a call from a friend to come over for a casual dinner on a Saturday where a few other friends of the host would also be  gathered. Eight to ten people would be a typical number. We would know about half the guests and make new friends with the guests we did not already know. The who-do-you-know exchanges would often happen in the early hours, and almost always there were mutual friends identified  regardless of where people grew up or attended college. The mood and ambience were casual and the food delicious—sometimes potluck– with lots of talk about great issues and great challenges and interesting things that happened this week on Capitol Hill or at City Hall or that think tank or that government agency. Empty bottles of wine started to pile up early. Sitting around the table the conversation was both chit chat and group dialogue. What came home to me almost every time was how interesting and smart these people were and how engaged with the world.  The parties would go on until after 10 or even later before people started to head home—sometimes staggering.

Then it would be our turn. I guess that Embry and I hosted these dinner party gatherings of friends (many, but not all just with Cleveland Park neighbors) at least quarterly and sometimes more often. And like other hosts we tried to mix it up with about half the guests not already friends but who we thought would be compatible, and we were almost always right. This is how  social networks grow and how people expand friendships. It was hard work pulling off a  dinner party but always fun and always worth it. I loved it. Embry is less enthusiastic, remembering how much work was involved in hosting but also looks back on that time of youthful energy with fondness.

I can’t remember the time the dinner parties started to peter out but think it was in the late 1980s or early 1990s when everyone’s kids were then mostly in college, when work was most demanding since most of us were about as far along in our careers as we were going to get, had lots of responsibilities, and, frankly,  no longer had  the energy to pull off a dinner party. The ones that did happen were fewer and smaller, and eating out with friends at a restaurant became the preferred option.

Of course, life changes over time. Most of us living in Cleveland Park in the 1970s and 1980s are now in our 80s or close to it. Some of our friends have moved out of the neighborhood. Some marriages have failed. Some have died. Some now live in long term care or retirement communities. But over the long haul many friendships have continued.

In those early, heady days of the 70s  and 80s when there was so much youthful drive, energy,  determination, and optimism, how many of us over the years were able to live out our ambitions and to achieve our goals? Did any of us live up to our potential,  make a dent, or make the world a better place, even if ever so slightly?

I think we who moved into Cleveland Park in the 1970s are less sanguine now about how to answer those questions. The world is surely in worse shape now than it was in those days, and this has happened on our watch. You know the litany: climate change, continuing race and class divisions, greater disparity in incomes between the ultra rich and everyone  else, Trumpism,  and the threats to our democracy. The Russia-Ukraine War continues with no end in sight, and Putin is threatening a nuclear “solution.” China has now become an enemy. There are probably more dictators in the world now than there were then, in those early days. So perhaps the more apt question is not whether we achieved our dreams but whether we ran the race as best as we could. I suspect many of us would answer yes to that question.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Several people have reached out to me to ask if I am still alive, since I have gone a month without a blog post. The answer is yes, but I am the first to admit that 2022 has not been one of my best years.

The major culprit, of course, is Covid. Hammered on a cruise ship in Iceland, I recovered just in time in early July to test negative and upon leaving the ship, did not have to be transferred to a “Covid Hotel” in Copenhagen. What I did not know then was that Covid was not finished with me. I have self-diagnosed as having Long Covid because the original Covid symptoms have now returned three times, all seemingly triggered by my overdoing it—after I had attempted to resume my regular activities of getting out and about, routine walking 2-3 miles a day, and doing volunteer activities associated with work on various nonprofit boards. Being hospitalized in Portland ME for another bout of BVS did not help much either (see previous blog posts about the incidents when I ended up in the emergency room at Washington Hospital Center and recently in Portland, ME, “ER Adventures 2022”). These recurrences have tended to last two to three weeks before I feel like I am able to get back to normal and declare myself free from this horrid disease. Then for a few days I am fine only to be hammered again with total fatigue and exhaustion, coughing, body aches and malaise. As I write this post, I feel fine, and have felt almost normal for three or four days. Tomorrow I could be hammered again by my unwelcomed nemesis.

So that is the story. But some have suggested that I do not have Long Covid, only a pesky respiratory virus with no name. It really does not make a difference what you call it, it is what it is, and as the saying goes, “sucks.”

Now one reason that there has not been a formal diagnosis is that the healthcare plan that I have has recently been changed so that there is a long wait period before you are able to see your primary care physician. You now must go online to get a “phone appointment” lasting 15-30 minutes. I signed up for the first open phone appointment about six weeks ago and will at last talk to my primary care doctor (whom I like) this Friday for the first time since coming down with Covid in late June.

I understand that Covid has changed the way we live and work on the Planet Earth and especially in the U.S. where hospitals have been overwhelmed. Health care workers are burned out and scarce, and hospital and medical systems are trying to cope. I have been tempted to switch Medicare insurance providers during this “open season,” but have resisted because I have about a half dozen doctors that I depend on in this system and am pleased with all of them. To try to start over is just too hard, and few of the people whom I have talked to who are in different systems are enthusiastic about the doctors or Medicare plans they have.  The nurses and doctors are not the problem for me.  

So, what is wrong with the health system I belong to? The post Covid protocol is first to refer anyone who has a health issue to the nearest emergency room. But how do you know if your health issue warrants an emergency room visit? And who wants to go to an emergency room unless you absolutely have to? During my two days in the Washington Hospital Center emergency room, I was confined to a dark corner separated by a thin curtain from the hustle and bustle of stretchers moving in and out carrying victims of gunshot and knife wounds, drug overdoses, car wrecks and heart attacks. This would be my last choice.

The second option is to go to an urgent care center. I have been to the urgent care center in my system three times, each involving a wait of several hours and then not getting a definitive diagnosis. If I was not very sick before the visit, I was after I departed. Not a very appealing option for me.

The third and final option is to call an “advice nurse,” who will hear your story and determine if you should talk to a doctor. This was the option that I selected; and after hearing my sad story, the nurse said I would receive a call from a physician who was at a hospital about 20 miles away. The doctor did call within a few minutes, listened to my story, was caring and supportive, and prescribed antibiotics for a sinus infection. She did ask me if I had had Covid and had all my vaccinations and boosters, but there was no mention of Long Covid.

So there you have it. This is the way health care now works in the United States—at least in some large health care systems. There are probably good reasons for some of this, but the idea of keeping patients away from their primary care physicians is idiocy. They are the ones who know you and have your medical history and are supposed to be your advocate. That used to be the case in the system I am in, but no longer. Your options are now emergency rooms, urgent care centers, and doctors who have never met you and never will, and interface with you briefly via phone or video. Does this make any sense? Not for patients like me, who may never know if I suffer from Long Covid but frankly do not care if someone, anyone, can keep these meltdowns with Covid-like symptoms from happening.

 

 

 

 

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This is my last missive from my trip to the Stans. This evening we flew from Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where we had a short but wonderful time in that land of nomads. We saw a sporting event yesterday whereby very skilled horsemen, divided into two teams, rode around the field trying to pick up a dead sheep, galloped down the field, and threw it into a big receptacle while the other team of horsemen tried to prevent them. It’s like a cross between American football and polo, but much rougher. 

The city of Bishkek is surrounded by spectacular, high snowcapped mountains, the Tian Sian range, some 20,000 feet tall. However, the mountains are shrouded most of the time by clouds and smog. When they come into view periodically, it is breathtaking. 

One of the things we learned about in Kyrgyzstan in more detail was  the devastating consequences of the breakup of the former Soviet Union on that small country. Apparently three countries–Russia, Belorussia, and Ukraine–got together and decided to break up the Soviet Union. The Central Asian countries (“the Stans”) were not consulted, but just handed the decision as a fait accompli.  The factories closed almost immediately (due to diminished demand), and the economy plummeted almost overnight. A large proportion of the Russians who had held prominent positions in the government and society left and returned to Russia. Both Russia and Belorussia invited them back, and some who remained feared discrimination and even retribution. Many skilled Kyrgyz people also left to find jobs elsewhere, mostly to Russia. There was hyperinflation combined with high unemployment. The poor suffered the most as is almost always the case. 

Privatization of real estate happened quickly. If you had inhabited an apartment or house for a certain amount of time, it became yours if you filed the paperwork properly. Around Bishkek, which is in general a lovely city, you see many dilapidated apartment houses, which seem out of place in the rapidly developing city with some attractive  new buildings. These older buildings are apparently the buildings where people got free apartments. Now there is little money or good cooperative governance in place to fix up the buildings, which have been slowly deteriorating over the past 30 years. I haven’t got a handle on how the collective farms were privatized, but the government ownership of land also was ended in rural areas.

While there were negative consequences, and apparently many older people are nostalgic about former Soviet times, the youthful population is happier about the changes; and there is overall an optimistic spirit. Still, many youth have to go abroad, usually to Russia, to earn a living so it’s a mixed bag.

I think the Russians have the right idea about immigration. While the circumstances and economies are different, Russia and the US both have a shortage of unskilled labor. Yet they encourage Central Asians to migrate to Russia for work and give them work permits easily along with a path to citizenship. They are allowed to go back and forth to their home countries as they like.  We, on the other hand, force hardworking immigrants to come illegally to do the jobs that Americans don’t want for low pay and keep them in the shadows so that they have no legal status and cannot return home to see their families. It is an unnecessary and cruel system (or non-system).

But as challenging as life is here in the Stans, many people remain hopeful and most have greeted us with warmth and hospitality. Here is how I have communicated with the wonderful people I have met along the way. To greet anyone, I just say “A-salamu Aleicum” which is “Peace be with you” in Arabic, but works in any Muslim country as a polite greeting.  For “thank you” I learned “Rachman” (I have no idea if I am spelling it correctly), but “Spaciba” which is Russian (perhaps also misspelled) also always works. To emphasize respect or thanks, they have a lovely gesture, which is to hold your right hand over your heart. With these, and a good translator at close hand, I have had no problems.

I will close my missives with this story: Yesterday we took a trip to the countryside and stopped by a farm for lunch and to see how they make their beautiful felt rugs. Each rug involves many hours of tedious work. The rugs originally were used to decorate their yurts (no longer used much).  I had been working on a piece of needlepoint as we rode along, and our guide encouraged me to show my needlework to the ladies of the farm. This caused a big excitement. I showed them how I did the stitching, and one of them immediately began to work on it! (I am sorry I didn’t take along some needlepoint to give them.)

That’s it for my missives from the Stans. Now back to the U.S. This is a fascinating part of the world with a rich history dating back thousands of years, yet rarely visited by Americans. It seems to get lost, nestled as it is between two giants, Russia and China, and still suffering from many years of Czarist and Soviet domination, lack of natural resources, population loss, regional instability (Afghanistan and Iran), and environmental degradation. However, a strong spirit of determination and regional pride remain, and the gems of stunning landscapes, charming ancient buildings, beautiful crafts and artwork are worth a visit by any adventuresome tourist. However, it is not for the faint of heart. I told  Joe he made the right call to miss this one.

 

 

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I am taking a welcomed day off here in Tashkent, while the other hardy travelers (including two 80+ year olds!) trek around Tashkent in the heat.  I couldn’t be happier. Perhaps the schedule for our day yesterday will help you understand why I am sitting by the pool reading and writing.

 

• Woke up call at 6:30 (actually a door knock due to lack of a working phone in the room).
• Packed up and took a quick shower.
• Ate breakfast. Yea, I can actually eat now! (The tourista has at last subsided.)
• Bus left at 8 for a long, bumpy ride to Nukus.
• Stopped along the way to see and take pictures of camels.
• Stopped along the way to tromp around ruins of ancient fortresses of the First Millennium BC. There is not lots of information on who these folks were, but the assumption is they were Persian speakers and followers of Zoroastrianism (Acmaeid Empire). If so, they believed in a single deity, good and evil, and had influence on a lot of other subsequent world religions including Judaism. They built their fortresses up high for protection from invaders, so I had to make a climb that should really have been outside my ability level, but I did it anyway, in some cases on hands and knees (along with three other of our group–not the guides, who knew what was involved!).
• Ate on the bus and enjoyed the desert scenery.
• Arrived in Nukus and visited the very interesting museum founded by a Russian artist and art collector, Igor Savitsky. This museum is important, because Savitsky collected art from avant  guarde artists from the Soviet era whose art was banned. He even showed some of it during Soviet times in this very out of the way place. When the Soviet inspectors would arrive, he would hide it in the basement and hang some Soviet realist art that he also collected .
• Drove a long way out of town on more bumpy roads to some mausoleums that were also way up on top of another hill. Perhaps they bury the dead up high from the Zoroastrian tradition of putting the dead out for crows to eat? At this point, I didn’t really want to see another mausoleum (although many are beautiful), having seen and admired many, many of them already on the trip. I sat down in the shade to wait for the group, and when they returned, I asked what it was like. My dead-tired compatriot mumbled (” AD, BC, AD, BC…”). In other words, he had no idea.
• Next, we rode back in to town to have a wonderful dinner in a private home that I could at last enjoy fully. I took a video of their charming daughter playing a local stringed instrument and singing. At dinner, we heard a presentation from a scientist who has started a local NGO concerning potential restoration of the Aral Sea.
• Then we drove to the airport for our 10:30 flight to Tashkent, arriving to our hotel at 1 am.!

A tiring and typical day.

Here are a few other observations:

Water and water rights are a huge issue here because the whole region is arid, and the rivers are drying up. We learned in the evening lecture that the methods of irrigation lead to a waste of about 80% of the water, which is a solvable problem, but the ineffective governments are doing nothing about it. The water comes from the Pamir mountains, which are in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, but it flows down to the other countries. Along the way it is siphoned off, leading to  poisoning  the water sources through chemicals and salinification (of which the Aral Sea is the greatest example). Likely over time a need for water may lead to more conflict than oil in this dry region. 

Women’s Rights: I have not been able to get a handle on this. Walking around town, you see no women fully veiled, although that was the tradition up through the 19th Century. Indeed, in those days women rarely left home, following a system that is more like that imposed by the Taliban today. Apparently, with equal education, women here are freer than before, perhaps one of a benefit from Soviet times, along with better public health and education. Still, most marriages are arranged, family sizes are large, and most women work at home and not in professions. In addition, even today, women do not got to the mosque or attend funerals, which seems quite severe. It is really a mixed bag.

Renovation vs reconstruction of national monuments: Most of the buildings of the World Heritage sites we have visited are beautiful and even pristine. But then you start to wonder how much is original. I always ask, and have gotten a hodgepodge of answers, from 40% original to 60%, etc. I imagine it’s not really known. This is one of the huge benefits of UNESCO designation, because they have guidelines for the process of renovation that must be followed to achieve designation, which brings prestige and tourism. Apparently, the renovation process started in the19th Century (in a limited way) on important sites that were falling into ruin. The Russians continued, although they concentrated on non-religious sites and sometimes destroyed some of the beautiful Kufic script Koran writing. The renovations have picked up since “independence” (1991), as a matter of national pride. The World Heritage sites are truly magnificent (Samarkand, Bokara, and Khiva), and I have become more of an admirer of the work of UNESCO after this visit. Of all things, the US has withdrawn our support of UNESCO, due to some dispute between Israel and Palestine.  What!?

 

 

 

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Kiva was our next stop on the Silk Road in Uzbekistan. As we rode into town–after a 7-hour bumpy ride across a mostly desert landscape– I could see that the old city has a very different look than the other places we have been so far (and equally beautiful).

Note that the Silk Road” is not really a road. The term was coined by a historian in the 19th century to represent the trade routes across the desert and mountains to get from Italy through Central Asia and into China. I’m sure these routes existed for centuries for shorter distances, but in Tang Dynasty China they took off as a way to get goods in and out of China to the West. This is the way Marco Polo went on his long journey, that he documented in his memoirs. So that’s why we see beautiful rugs and oriental China in renaissance paintings. Riding through the vast desert yesterday, I asked how they kept from getting lost on those long journeys. It was apparently the same techniques as the great sea voyagers used to cross the oceans, such as using stars and   instruments like the sextant.  There were trains of camels and horses, led by a specialist in finding the way. Along the way were “caravanserai,” which were places to sleep and rest/water the animals.  The water was brought from the rivers in tunnels (such as from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers) and stored in specialized cisterns.

Cotton was–and is– also a critical factor in the region.  Cotton in Central Asia played a similar role as in the deep South, both before and after the Civil War.  In the U.S., the cheap labor needed to grow and pick the cotton by hand was provided by slaves or poor blacks tied to the same fields they worked in during slavery.  In Central Asia, it was provided by poor farmers who–after Communism–were organized into collective farms. These farms had production quotas passed down from Moscow to the farm and then to the individual laborer. Because these were often unreasonable quotas, corruption occurred whereby from the bottom up to the top, through many bureaucratic layers, bribes encouraged people to lie about actual production.

Corruption is prevalent both in the public and private sectors. Perhaps this is because it was so prevalent in the Communist era just to get by, and then it became somewhat engraved in daily life. A story told by our guide was of the daughter of the former president. Nepotism, another form of corruption  is also prevalent. Apparently, she held a high office (perhaps a Minister of Commerce), where she had to approve all the contracts for things like roads and bridges. She imposed a 10% cut off the top for any construction project, which went into her personal bank account.  This was exposed by a brave internal auditor, who was ultimately fired by her dad. Of all things, this lady was also the Uzbekistani Ambassador to the UN! Apparently, the European Bank of Reconstruction has now put restrictions on the money they provide. However, a lot of the money they provide for roads is still wasted, and the work is shoddy. The Chinese (who perhaps have more tolerance for corruption) have a different approach, which to send in their own workers.

Another similarity with the American South is that the unemployment caused by the dissolution of the collective farms after the breakup of the former Soviet Union, caused young men to migrate to Russia for work to fill low paying jobs, a movement like our Great Migration. Just as Russia needs the cotton, they now–with their population decline—also need these workers. Yet my impression is that Uzbeks prefer to move to the U.S. Around the towns you see big signs that say “GREEN CARD,” advertising places where they help you fill out an application for the US green card lottery. The Central Asian nations are pushing back, however, saying local workers must be hired.  Our guide said, “Why should we send our boys to work in Russia  when we could have them working here?”

A terrible consequence of cotton production is that cotton is a “thirsty crop,” which requires intensive irrigation at key points in the growing cycle. Consequently, due to diversion of water from the rivers, there was a slow evaporation of the huge inland Aral Sea, which now seems beyond saving. (Windstorms carry dust that is salty and polluted with chemicals around the region.) This ecological disaster, along with corruption encouraged by the production quotas, are key factors in the breakup of the former Soviet Union.

However, lot of cotton is still grown here, and now is the time for picking. The fields are white, and we see many people (mostly women) bent over picking the cotton.

Central Asia is a fascinating part of the world, with a rich history, stunning landscape, ancient cities, and lingering challenges that will profoundly affect the future of the region.

 

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Day Four (Still in Uzbekistan)

For a map of Central Asia, click here:

Caucasus central asia political map 2000 – Central Asia – Wikipedia

Here’s what we did today, pretty much of a typical day, and one reason the Smithsonian discouraged those not up for an exhausting tour:

• Up at dawn, breakfast and then on the bus at 8
• Visit to Timur’s mausoleum (beautiful)
• Visit to Ulug Beg’s observatory 
• Archeological site from the Sogdiana period
• Lunch in elegant restaurant 
• Trip to factory for silk rugs (no, I did not buy one)
• Visit to a bakery
• Dinner in family home
• Whew, off to bed

Here is what we experienced:

 After coming back from Tajikistan to Uzbekistan, we drove in the bus and ended up in Samarkand, a city in southeastern Uzbekistan. Things have gotten a lot more interesting in terms of beautiful historical sights. We have seen one after another amazing buildings of classic Islamic architecture from the Timurid period (14th and 15th Centuries).  Timur (otherwise known as Tamerlane) was an Uzbek warrior who kicked out the Mongols (although he married into Genghis Khan’s family) and established a rather fragile empire, which broke up within a century after his death in the early 15th century. (They had not worked out their rules of succession as well as the British!)  He encouraged learning and brought in architects and artists from around the world. We have seen the madrassas (schools) and tombs (mausoleums) that the Timurids built.  His grandson, Ulug Beg, was also a warrior, but also a brilliant astronomer, who built on Greek and Indian astronomy to map many of the stars well before the Europeans. Luckily his students saved some of his writings, which were passed down and preserved.

A few other items:

Music and Arts:  The Uzbeks and Tajiks have an artistic and expressive society, with amazing crafts, music, and dance. We saw a person play several of the traditional instruments, which are a huge range of stringed instruments, each different is size, the number of strings, how they are made (with which wood), and how they are played (plucked or bowed). The other common traditional instruments are flutes and tambourines that serve as the drums.

Money: They must have had some hyperinflation along the way because all denominations of the money are in the thousands. For example, 1000 “som” is 20 cents, and I have never seen any lower denomination (few coins or lower bills).  So I asked an innocent and naive question about why they don’t just log off three zeros to make the arithmetic easier.  The answer was practical; it would take a lot of money to redo all the bills and machines to make the bills, etc. Of course, they are all used to this crazy system and see no problem with it, just like us and our pennies.

Clothing: While people don’t wear the most elaborate traditional dress day-to-day, most people (except for youth in the cities, who wear jeans and T-shirts) do not dress in “Western” dress.  Most women wear very colorful flowered long dresses, and older women over middle age usually have something on their heads, usually a scarf. I have never seen a face covering (including a covid mask, which is another story). Older men often wear a typical Uzbek cap, which can be colorful or black.

Food: We have been constantly overfed, with buffets for breakfast, three or four courses for lunch, and the same for dinner. Each meal (lunch and dinner) starts with an elaborate display of salads. I have gotten lots of pictures of these colorful displays. Then we have a soup (today at lunch a delicious borscht). Then there is the main course, usually meat (sometimes kabobs) with rice and potatoes. Finally, there is fruit and usually also a sweet dessert.  I don’t know how they expect you to eat all this, but you can see why I am struggling to overcome an upset stomach. Still it is good, and especially to look at.

Personalities: I noticed a distinct difference century between Uzbek and Tajik people. This was confirmed by our guide as a “type,” with obviously many exceptions, Uzbeks are more reserved, and Tajiks are more outgoing–perhaps like the contrast between Japanese and  Chinese people.  As an example, at the hotel where we stayed in Tajikistan, the proprietress gave us hugs, turned on the boom box, and had us dancing around with her after breakfast. In Tajikistan, everyone was happy for me to take their picture, which wasn’t always the case in Uzbekistan. 

 

 

 

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