Civil War?

In her blog post on July 23, 2024, Heather Cox Richardson reported on the comments of an Ohio state senator following the stump speech by J.D. Vance after the Republican convention:

Media outlets gave more attention to the Ohio state senator who preceded Vance, George Lang, who began a chant of “fight, fight, fight” and told the audience: “I believe wholeheartedly Donald Trump and Butler County’s JD Vance are the last chance to save our country politically. I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country, and it will be saved.” 

While the senator apologized later for the civil war threat, does anyone think that Trump and his MAGA followers will quietly accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if Trump loses? Trump has already stated that he will accept the results only if he agrees with the outcome. Vance is echoing Trump’s remarks that the last election was stolen by the Democrats and that this will never be allowed to happen again. Even today after all the lawsuits regarding the 2020 election have failed to prove that the 2020 election was fraudulent, the percentage of Republicans who answer polls that it was stolen remains over 60 percent.

Good heavens! A strong majority of Republicans still believe this lie? How can this be? What are they smoking?

And civil war? Really? And a state senator said this?

We can’t let the threats from Trump discourage us. For the first time in at least a year, I am starting to feel better about the prospects of beating Donald Trump. With Kamala heading up the ticket, I believe we will win. Trump is now showing as many signs of aging and incoherency as Biden. Vance is not going to help with the undecided, the women voters, and the independents, who will ultimately determine who wins. 

But make no mistake: It is going to be brutal. Trump and Vance will pull every nasty trick out of their bag that they can including dog whistling aimed to put doubts that any woman of color is fit to run for the highest office. The attacks will be painful, personal, and unrelenting.

I also believe that they will try to play the dirty tricks that they have falsely been accusing the Democrats of and have probably already begun planning how to challenge the results if Trump loses. Consider this a Custer’s-Last-Stand moment for Trump and his MAGA fanatics.

Senator Lang’s threats are especially troubling. What happens if he is right? What happens if the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers try again but with a stronger force than in 2021? And this time, the insurrectionists have had more time to plan and organize. This is certainly an early warning signal that the election of 2024 may not be over when the vote counting concludes.  

So put on your combat armor and prepare for a brutal fight. But do not despair. Our country will come through this anticipated dark night of the soul and be stronger for it–and with hopes for a gentler, kinder, fairer, and more inclusive nation.   

 

New Ballgame

Before you pop the champagne, keep in mind that the presidential election is still likely to be a cliffhanger. But still, we can now breathe a little easier. At least now we have a fighting chance.

First a word about Biden. He is getting much deserved praise from all corners of the Democratic Party. He has been one of the most effective American presidents in terms of legislation and perhaps the most effective one-term president ever.  He deserves the praise. His legacy is intact, and historians will be kind. He should have announced his decision to pass the torch about 18 months ago (as he said he would do when running in 2020 and as I had advised him to do), allowing a contested primary to happen showcasing the stars of the next generation, but better late then never. And it turns out that having the announcement follow the Republican convention was great timing. It has thrown the Republican Party into turmoil.

So, what’s next? I have been glued to the news channels starting around three on Sunday and most of Monday. (Ok, I fess up, mainly MSNBC). The consensus is that Kamala Harris will be the official Democratic presidential candidate. I am fine with that. She will destroy Trump if there is a debate. I believe she will be a strong candidate, will win, and be a good president. But that does not mean that she will have an easy time or that there will not be more surprises or nail biting moments. There is disagreement as I write this post as to whether an abbreviated, contested mini primary followed by an open convention would help or hurt. Some argue that it would toughen her up, hone her skills for communicating, and help her reach out to undecided voters. Others say that with the endorsements she already has—now including a strong one from Nancy Pelosi– and no one (now) willing to challenge her, she will win anyway, so why open up the possibility of a messy conflict within the Democratic Party? What we Democrats desperately need is unity.

And whom might she choose for a vice presidential candidate? Many are suggesting a tough white guy from a battleground state—like Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona or Governor Roy Cooper from North Carolina–or maybe Governor Andy Beshear from Kentucky, who has been able to triumph in a solid red state. All three look good to me, but there are many more strong possibilities—men and women– waiting in the wings.  Pennsylvania Governor, Josh Shapiro’s name seems to be coming up a lot. 

So buckle up. Here we go again. I do not need to remind anyone how high the stakes are or what would happen if Trump and Vance were to get elected. God help us.

Speaking of God, Trump asserts that it was God Almighty who directed him to turn away at the split microsecond that the bullet would have pierced his scull. Many of his hard core MAGA followers believe the same thing, some even believing that Trump is divine. Biden on the other hand stated publicly that only if God Almighty directed him to bow out would he withdraw from the race. Since Biden withdrew, presumably God weighed in.

Hmmm.

 

 

Taking Stock: The Political Climate, Mid July 2024

We find ourselves at a moment that will be in the history books for years to come. At his Pennsylvania rally on Sunday, Trump miraculously turned to the right as a sniper bullet whizzed past only nicking his ear. Many in his evangelical base swear this was an act of God and proof that God has chosen Trump to carry out God’s mission presumably “to make America great again.” Some followers go even farther proclaiming that this miraculous event shows that Trump is God’s special prophet, maybe like the Old Testament prophets or even Jesus. Meanwhile he has chosen JD Vance, a MAGA hardliner and a 2020 election denier, as his Vice President presumably to seal the deal with Trump’s white working class base. We don’t know yet whether Trump’s near death experience will nudge Trump more  toward the middle, soften his rough edges, or accelerate his fascist tendencies. But what we do know is the Republican Party is now unified as the Party of Trump and any similarities with the past GOP are left smoldering in the ashes.

What is in some ways just as frightening is what is happening to the Democrats. All the polls show now that Trump is ahead in the battleground states. For Biden to win he needs every Democratic vote he can get and every independent vote. He must carry most of the battleground states and hold the “Blue Wall.” Yet the party is now split about Biden’s candidacy. Unless the Democrats can come together around a unity candidate, the chances of beating Trump are at best slim and probably nil. The issue, of course, is whether Biden, who will turn 82 before the year is out, has the energy and acumen to carry the torch. Even as more elected officials and Democrat leaders are now urging Biden to pass the torch to a candidate who is younger and has more charisma, Biden is hunkering down, vowing he will never step down. He believes that he is the comeback kid who has proved in the past that he can win against all odds and will win again even if all the indicators now show otherwise. And he does not appear to understand the stakes.  He answered one of the questions by ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in his prime time television interview that he will have no reservations or misgivings even if he loses to Trump if he can honestly say that he gave the campaign his best shot. No, Joe, wrong answer.

Biden is putting his ego and desire to stay in power above what is best for the nation. This is selfish and frankly unforgivable.

As matters now stand, it is hard to see how this movie is going to have a happy ending.

The main problem that I and many others have with Biden—who without doubt has been a good first term president—is that too often his communication skills have deteriorated to the point of not making sense. He slurs his words, speaks with hesitation, loses track of his thoughts and is painful to watch. While this was most pronounced during the disastrous debate, it now happens a lot of the time. I watched most of the NBC Lester Holt interview and snippets from the NAACP speech. The speech challenges and gaffs continue, maybe are even getting worse. This should disqualify anyone running for President of the United States. Nothing is more important than being able to communicate to the American people and to the world. Communication skills are critical in a leader. Sadly, Joe Biden has lost those skills. That is not necessarily his fault but rather one of aging’s cruel surprises. Now close to 75 percent of Democrats believe Biden is too old to run. People understand this. He is too old. More and more people are concluding that the emperor has no clothes (or in this case. no voice).

In a previous post, I suggested a come-to-Jesus meeting with the brain trust of the party. Yes, making a switch now is messy and not without risk but it is the only way that we stand a chance of beating Trump. It must happen and must happen very soon. There is no other viable option.

 

 

Game Changer?

Well, there is nothing like an assassination or an attempted one that will get the attention of the American public. The question is what’s next. While there are many scenarios, let’s look at two which could be said to represent each end of a continuum— hope and despair.

Hope

After an exhaustive investigation, it turns out that the assassin had no obvious political motivation, was in fact a loyal Republican, and acted for personal reasons, mostly mysterious but probably related to mental illness and wanting attention. The attention of the nation turns more to gun control, addressing depression and mental illness, and keeping guns out of the hands of dangerous or disturbed people. Trump has his own come-to-Jesus moment, moderates his position on controversial issues, rejects the 2025 Heritage Foundation playbook, and moves more to the center. This could spell bad news for Democrats; but in moving more to the center, Trump loses a portion of his MAGA base, who now feel abandoned and deceived, and the election prospects remain in a virtual tie.  The Democrats come together and stick with Biden, who becomes the easiest choice given the divisions in the Democratic Party and the uncertainty of how to beat Trump-the-Martyr.

Biden reaches out to Trump, and the two for the first time are on speaking terms. Having Biden on the ticket, of course, is not such good news from my perspective for all the reasons in my last post, but that a new civility is happening is a good thing. For the first time the public has some breathing room as Trump says he is backing away from most of the 2025 radical initiatives. There is one more debate, which turns out to be more civil, focusing on policy issues. Biden does a much better job, and the two shake hands and two months later go into election night, hoping for a victory but realizing that should the voters choose the opponent, the country is not headed toward an existential crisis. Both candidates agree to accept the results. Moderation prevails as the two candidates morph into center left and center right candidates, remain on speaking terms. and advocate for what each considers best policies for the country. MAGAs sit on the sidelines and pout. Biden wins by a small margin. Think Obama versus McCain in 2008 or Obama versus Romney in 2012. Happy ending. The country breathes a long sigh of relief.

I know that some will argue that anyone who holds such a Pollyannish view should see a mental health professional immediately.

Despair

Trump, now Trump-the-Martyr, initially backs off from some of  the most extreme 2025 playbook initiatives but realizes he risks losing his MAGA base and finds moderation temperamentally impossible. He turns up the heat, accusing Biden of personally directing the attempted assassination. The internet is jammed with posts from supporters who claim to have definitive proof that Biden was behind the assassination attempt. The only reason that they do not demand that Biden step aside immediately is that they believe Biden will be the easiest to defeat. In order not to offend battleground state voters, Democrats pull the negative, most damning ads against Trump and are not able to come up with a replacement candidate for Biden that the various camps can agree on. The second debate is more one sided than the first. Yet by this time it is too late for the Democrats to make a change. Trump warns that he will never accept election results unless he wins. MAGAs go crazy and become even more openly hostile to Democrats, whom they refer to as “Commie Thugs.” Trump vigilante militias form to stand by along with the Proud Boys and Oath keepers in case the results are close, which they are not. Trump wins by a landslide ushering in an era of mass deportations, vigilante justice, the victory of Russia over Ukraine, and the breakup of NATO and the world order. Democracy dies in the United States. Far left groups start to form to fight the Trump regime, and the country finds itself on the verge of full scale civil war.

These two scenarios represent the extremes. We will likely end up with something in between but what? These are the times we find ourselves in on July 16, 2024. Buckle your seatbelts. It looks like it is going to be a rough ride.

What do you think? What should we Dems do about the Biden replacement question? How can we  defeat Trump?

 

 

The Smoke-Filled Room

The dilemma facing the Democrats is what to do next. With a candidate who is popular with  voters, we would have a good chance of beating Trump, who if he is reelected has promised to turn our fragile democracy upside down, taking the world order with it. The stakes have never been higher. Most people I know acknowledge this. Yet Joe Biden is not that candidate. He is unpopular, not because he has been a terrible president or hasn’t accomplished significant victories for the American people, but because of his age and perceived frailty. I get that. I am eight months older than Biden. I do not know anyone who is in their early 80s  or close to it, who thinks that octogenarians have any business in taking on what is one of the most demanding jobs in the world, if not the most demanding. For a while it looked like Biden might get a pass, and then came the devastating debate followed by the much anticipated press conference, which though not catastrophic did little to boost Biden’s image or confidence that he is playing with a full deck.

What are the Democrats to do?

It is time for the smoke-filled room.

Now I know few smoke nowadays and there is no such thing as a smoke-filled room like there used to be when party bosses would assemble from all over the country prior to their party’s convention. Smoking cigars and sipping Jack Daniels whisky, these men—yes, they were all men– were the party’s movers and shakers who would slug it out behind closed doors prior to the convention and narrow the list of contenders to a few who presumably could win in a general election. This was before the reforms of the late 60s, which ushered in a competitive primary system, which mostly has worked—until now. Biden won the primaries essentially unopposed. But this was before the debate, which unveiled one of the administration’s best kept secrets that Biden is aging quickly and no longer sharp. He slurs his words, gets confused, and is unsteady on his feet. Hey, I understand that. I have some of the same challenges. This is just the way it works on the Planet Earth with us Homo sapiens as we age. If Biden is struggling now, what will he be like in two or three years?

What is most distressing is that Biden refuses to listen or see the writing on the wall. He has said many times that he will never withdraw his name to allow for an open convention. He blames the party’s elite who he believes are giving him a hard time for no reason, the skeptical press, and the big doners, and believes that all the polls are wrong. When knocked down Biden says he gets back up and fights harder and wins. This is his life story. His family is urging him to fight on despite the odds. So are his closest advisors. But they all have skin in the game and will lose their jobs if he pulls out.

Shame on them!

So my message to the President is this: Sorry, Joe, even though your opponent is just as confused and even more incoherent than you are—and almost as old– all the polls show he is ahead in key battleground states and that your age is a huge stumbling block. Plus, the whole world was watching the debate.  We all witnessed your demise with our own eyes. You had your chance to turn the tide and you failed.  Game over.

So back to the smoke-filled room. What needs to happen is for the brain trust of the Democratic Party and the Democrat fat cats to break out the whisky, light the cigars and sit you down behind the wood shed for a come-to-Jesus moment. This should include Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, a trusted pollster, one of the fat cats, and maybe one of your trusted media friends like Joe Scarborough. This needs to happen now, like early in the next week at the latest. The longer it takes, the more difficult it will be to figure out an orderly process which allows the stars in the next generation their opportunity to compete for the most demanding and important job on the world stage. If you do this, you will secure your legacy as one of the best, single term presidents in our history and be loved and admired for putting away your pride and ambition for what is best for your party and your country. If you don’t pull out, however, your legacy will be facilitating a takeover by a wannabe fascist dictator.

 

 

Faux News Returns: Pathway Established For Biden To Beat Trump

Note to Reader: For those who are not familiar with “Faux News: All the Fake News That Is Fit To Print,” this news source was very active in my blog postings during the Trump presidency. Due to the high stakes of the upcoming election, I have returned to it out of desperation.

What distinguishes Faux News (properly pronounced “Fox News”)  from other reliable sources of news coverage like PBS, CNN, The Washington Post and The New York Times, is that at Faux News we have informants disguised as messengers, janitors, stenographers, and technicians who work in the White House and can eavesdrop on top level, highly confidential conversations in the Oval Office. This is the latest post from one of the fictitious White House informants, a janitor, who overheard and secretly recorded this conversation verbatim following the ABC interview. Enjoy.

 

A group of high level Biden advisors are gathered in the Oval Office with Biden to discuss campaign strategy moving forward, following the ABC interview.

Advisor 1: Mister President. Bad news to report. Your approval among likely voters remains very low; and if the election were held today, it is likely that you would lose to the fascist Trump by a landslide. While we think you did a good job on the ABC News interview last night, you may not have convinced very many people that you are actually much younger than you look, that you are vigorous, intellectually sharp, and are at  the top of your game.

Biden: But I have been a great president. All the Democrats say that. Why are they turning against me? I am not all that old. I am as sharp as ever.

Advisor 2: Well, you come across as being too old and it appears nothing will change people’s minds at this point.

Biden: Well, I am not stepping down and never will. Jill supports me on this. So does my family.

Advisor 1: Great news, Mister President. You don’t have to. We have a solution.

Biden: Really? I am all ears. 

Advisor 1. You pull out your revolver, shoot Trump at close range, and kill him during the second debate. It would be spectacular! It would make headlines all over the world, and there is not a damn thing anyone can do about it if it is an official act. The Supreme Court now grants total immunity to the President of the United States for all official acts while in office.

Biden: But I am not all that good with a gun. My hands shake, my vision is not the best, and I might miss him and hit one of the commentators. Plus, it is against my religion. The Bible says “Thou shalt not kill.”

Advisor 2. We understand that you might have some reservations, Mister President, and have a suggestion which we believe may be more to your liking. If you do not feel up to the task, we recommend that you order the military to do it. There are many options like the Navy Seals or the Army Green Berets or one of our military spies.  However, to get the most publicity and coverage, we recommend that the action happen in the middle of the next debate. Just think how dramatic this will be. It will be the talk of the town. And don’t worry. We are convinced that the Seals or whomever you choose can get the job done.

Biden: Interesting idea. Who came up with it?

Advisor 1: I did. Our intelligence agents spying on the Trump campaign report that if Trump wins, he will imprison you and probably have your cabinet, Lynn Chaney and all those involved in the House impeachment hearings arrested and executed. Pelosi and Schumer too. It is either you or Trump. He is bragging that if reelected he can do this or anything he pleases because once he is reelected, he will have lifetime immunity for anything he does that is an official act, thanks to the Supreme Court. But he forgot one thing. He has not been reelected yet. You are the sitting president, not him! So you beat Trump to the punch. The Bible I think also says something like “do unto others as they do unto you.” This should not go against your religion. So, Mister President, order the Seals to neutralize the bastard before he neutralizes you. You are the only one now with total lifetime immunity. If you don’t do this now, you will be a cooked goose once Trump gets into office. He will probably order your demise on Day One, maybe even announce this during his inauguration speech.

Biden: Geeze. Never thought about this.

Advisor 2: Mister President, you really don’t have a choice. You would be saving our country from a fascist dictator, who will take our country and our world down the tubes. This would be a heroic act. Besides making the evening news, it might even end up in the history books.

Biden:  Are you sure this would be an official act?

Advisor 1: We have researched this with the greatest legal minds and constitutional scholars in the country, who all agree that if done properly, it will be an official act. Remember that you have taken an oath to protect the Constitution. If Trump wins, he will trash the Constitution, and democracy in the U.S. will cease to exist. So, what you need to do is to tell the American people after Trump’s body is dragged off the stage not to worry. You ordered this as an official act and give them your reasons for doing this. If you would prefer that the neutralization not happen during the debate, the neutralization could happen before or after (though if Trump was neutralized before the debate, obviously there would not be a debate.). If you do not choose to wipe out the Orange Fascist during the debate, your address to the nation should occur at the exact time that your order is being carried out. Just think of the drama! You will get lots of television coverage and social media postings. Remember–you are doing this to protect the Constitution and to assure that democracy will be saved. This is an official act! Be sure you mention that in your address—that you have ordered the military to neutralize Donald J Trump because of his existential threat to our country, the Constitution, and the world.

(long pause)

Biden: Will a teleprompter be available?

 

My November 2022 Letter to the President

Some readers may recall this post which I wrote 18 months ago. For those who did not see it, I am reposting. Unfortunately Biden  did not take my advice. I fear that just as the legacy of the fabulous Supreme  Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, would turn out to be the end of Roe v. Wade (which would not have happened if she had retired to allow Obama to appoint her replacement), the legacy of Joe Biden will be Donald Trump, the end of democracy in the United States, and the upending of world order.

November 11, 2022

Dear Mr. President,

Mr. President, first, congratulations on the strong mid-term showings. We Dems beat all the odds due in part to your campaigning and championing the cause of democracy. You also get kudos for  the success you have had in getting significant legislation passed in a divided Congress and a divided country—against all the odds. Yes, I know your approval ratings are low because food and gas cost more, rents are up, the stock market is jittery, and some fear a recession,  but you got us through the 2020-2021 covid outbreaks and helped millions of companies and people avoid bankruptcy . You also championed progressive legislation on infrastructure, combating climate change, lowering prescription drug prices, and raising taxes on large corporations. These are huge accomplishments. Unemployment remains at historic lows and wages are up. You have been a world leader in the opposition to Russia in its war on Ukraine. You have restored respect by world leaders for the office of President of the United States.

I know you have a lot on your to-do list to accomplish in the next two years and despite hostile Republican opposition to basically everything you will propose, I am confident that you will continue to move our country forward.

Bottom line, Mr. President, you have been and are a great President. The historians will be kind to you, even if you are not able to get as much done in the next two years. While it is true that you are not the most charismatic President we have ever had, your humility, common decency and ability to relate to the average American are welcomed traits not often found in a President of the United States. Your empathy for those in distress—due in part to the personal losses you have experienced—resonates with others and has helped many who have suffered personal loss. In my book you are a hero.

Now I know that you are contemplating whether you will  run for a second term and have hinted that you are going to announce that you will. Mr. President, with respect , I plead to you: Don’t do it. Just say no!

Here is the reason: You are too old. In a couple of weeks you will turn 80. I can say this because we are almost  the same age. You were born November 30, 1942. I was born the same year on April 1. I am eight months older.

Anyone our age knows that there are issues associated with old age and aging.  When we were born in 1942, our life expectancy was 77. We have outlived more than half the people born that year. I know social class, gender, race and income also affect longevity; and for this reason I note that  about two thirds of of my high school and college classmates also have beaten the odds and are still alive. But that does not mean we are in great health. Many of my friends are dealing with serious health issues—like Parkinson’s, cancer, strokes, heart disease, melanoma, and dementia.

Look, I just got a physical this week and I am grateful to report that I am in good health for an 80-year old. I still get in my 15-17 miles of walking (albeit slowly) every week and with one exception (not life threatening), do not have any serious health issues. However, if I am sitting in a low chair or seat with no arms, it is a challenge to get up. My balance is not what it used to be even in my 70s, and there is no way without risking my life that I can manage to climb or descend stairs without hanging onto a railing. I still have my marbles but forget names occasionally that I should remember. Hey, this is normal aging.  This is what we octogenarians have to deal with. Certainly, you know what I am talking about.  This is the way it works on the planet Earth. We humans—like all animals—have a beginning and an end. For someone in their 80s, the end is getting closer. Sure, you may feel ok now, but things could and often do change in a heartbeat.

The four factors I think that you need to keep in mind as you make your decision to run again are these: energy level, stamina, mental acuity, and judgement. Committing to run again would mean four more years in the hardest and most demanding job on the planet Earth. No former President has been that old or even close to it. If you win the next election and finish out your second term, you will be 86 when it is time to retire. Ask your team of doctors what the chances are that someone who is in pretty good shape for his age at age 80 will sail through until his mid 80s with no changes to overall health and capabilities. I am not a doctor, but I would suggest the answer is zero. Just spend some time at any retirement community and check out how the 70-somethings are doing compared to the 80-somethings. That is the business I  was in. Trust me, there is a big difference.

Mr. President, to put yourself through this and to put the country through this as they wonder, as is natural, whether you are still playing with a full deck, just does not make sense. And what about other world leaders as they monitor every move you make and ask the same questions about the leadership ability  of someone in his early to mid  80s. It is not fair to yourself or to your country. A statesman—which you are—would say thanks but no thanks. It is time to pass the baton to a younger generation.

Now to put this in perspective, I checked out on the web the ages of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 Companies. Their jobs do not begin to compare to yours in terms of stress, stamina, and the need for good judgement. The average age of a Fortune 500 CEO is 57. Only one is older than you are now—Warren Buffet and that does not really count (He is 91.). Only a handful are over 70. Most retire at age 65, as is required by many companies. The reasons for this  I have just spelled out.

And for those who argue that age should not be a factor, I also checked out the life expectancy on the internet  of a white male, age 80. The answer is seven years. Hey, some would argue that proves there is no risk associated with serving a second term, right? After serving another four years, you will still have a full year to spare. No problem. Why worry? 

Well, there is another way of looking at it. Half of us 80-year olds will be dead in seven years.

Please.

There are three other final reasons that you should not run again. The first is that you probably will  not win a second term. Now if Trump  wins the nomination, which I think is now unlikely, you may have a chance, but God help the country if Trump is the Republican nominee. Your opponent would more likely  be DeSantis or  perhaps another Ivy League renegade like Cruz  or a fake moderate like Youngkin. DeSantis, now considered to be the most likely, is young by comparison (44), smart, vigorous, charismatic, and very conservative though not a total  Trump wannabe. DeSantis would likely beat you. So would  Youngkin (55) or someone like him. Mr.President, it all has to do with age, not political positions or qualifications. A vigorous candidate in his or her 40s or 50s is very likely to beat an old guy who is in his early 80s unless the younger candidate is a nutcase, which is certainly possible in the Republican Party, but you can’t count on it.  

The second reason is that second terms are for most presidents more challenging and less successful than their first. Think about your eight years with Obama. The second term was spent mainly trying to preserve the ACA and putting out fires. George W. had the disastrous Iraq insurgency to deal with. Bill Clinton had his Lewinsky affair. Johnson’s experience with Vietnam was so bad he chose not to run again. Reagan had his Iran-Contra scandal. Lesson learned: quit while you are ahead. If the next two  years of  your first term are as good as your first two, there will be a favorable place for you in the history books. Don’t risk a second term.

The third and perhaps most important is that it is not fair to your party. It is time for a younger generation to step up to the plate. There are lots of younger, fabulous leaders in the Democratic Party, with intelligence, compassion, good judgement and fire in the belly. They are dedicated to the same progressive ideals that you are. I think of past Presidents like John Kennedy, Obama, Clinton—they were  all young when they were first elected and all strong and (for the most part) successful presidents. It is that time again now.

In fact, if you did decide to run, it could have a devastating  impact on your party if you were challenged in the primary. Many loyal Democrats feel the same way I do. It could happen.

It is time to pass the baton to a younger generation. It is their turn now. Make it happen, Mr. President. You can do it. I hope and pray you will make the right decision.

If you will indulge my informality, allow me to close with this unsolicited but fundamentally sound advice: Hey, Joe, just say No!

Your admirer,

Joseph T.  Howell

Fellow Octogenarian

The Debate Disaster: It’s Biden’s Age, Stupid.

Like many of you, Embry and I tuned into Thursday’s presidential debate only to find ourselves in dismay. This morning, I read all that was available online in The New York Times and The Washington Post and spent the better part of the morning watching Morning Joe (my favorite unbiased and nonpartisan television news channel). It turns out we are not alone. Today—the morning after– the Democratic Party is in a panic mode. The big questions are whether Biden’s performance was so bad that the party’s movers and shakers should try to persuade him to step down while there is still time for a replacement and who might that replacement be.

While practically everyone acknowledges that his performance was poor—due to looking and acting old and frail and muddling his words– most Democrats also point out that he has been a great president. Because of that some argue that he deserves another four years. In any event, unless he voluntarily releases his delegates, an action which seems unlikely, he will the party’s nominee, like it or not. Besides, switching horses at this late stage is extremely risky, especially since the race is so close. What to do?

My recommendation? Biden should withdraw. It is time to pass the baton to the next generation. I wrote a blog post over a year and a half ago, pleading with Biden to announce that he was honoring his pledge to be a one-term president. (See “Just Say No, Joe.” November 13, 2022.) My argument then was simply that he was too old to seek a second term.

One of the pundits this morning on Morning Joe commented that we should not worry too much. While Biden may lose the vote of many young people, he will likely pick up votes from seniors that will compensate for losing younger voters. They will love him for it.

Please. I doubt few octogenarians will be happy to see someone our age in the Whitehouse.

I am nine months older than Biden. Last time I checked we Homo sapiens have a limited life span on the planet Earth. When Biden and I were born, it was about 76. For those who make it to 82, on average we men have a tad over seven years left, about a year longer for women. So what is the problem? A second term would only be four years.

The problem is that we humans all slow down as we age, and we all lose certain capabilities, both physical and mental. We just can’t do many of the things we used to be able to do. I just returned from my 60threunion at Davidson College. Over a third of my classmates have died; and the 15 percent or so of those who made it to the reunion, no one I talked to was still working in a full or even a part time job. Of all my friends my age or close to it, I know only one person who is still working and no one who has a full time, high pressure job. We seniors understand that we slow down. This is our experience. We know that disabilities set in, try to deal with them as best we can, and understand that we just can’t perform at the level we used to at a younger age. I do not know anyone in their 80s who would say they miss being in a high pressure or stressful job.

There are age limits for lots of jobs in the private sector and for good reason. The average age of a CEO of a Fortune 500 Company is 57. Only 18 percent are over age 65. It seems that the one major exception to this is the gerontocracy of the United States Senate and House of Representatives. I do not understand why this is the case but suspect it has to do with the kind of support that they have, their responsibilities or lack thereof, and workload. In any event there is a big difference between being a U.S. Senator or Congressman and being the President of the United States.

In my case, a decisive turning point was turning 80. However, there were many transition points along the way—when I gave up serious waterskiing in my mid 30s, when I gave up serious running in my mid 50s, when I sold my consulting company, also in my mid 50s, and began part time consulting, when I retired from adjunct college teaching and gave up tennis and canoeing in my late 60s, when Embry and I sold our house and moved to an apartment building in my mid 70s, and when we sold our last sailboat in my late 70s. Sailing was probably the toughest one to give up, but in each of these milestones, I came to realize that I could not continue to do these things anymore. But turning 80 seemed different and more like a watershed moment. I have still been able to keep up my walking 15-20 miles a week but at a much slower pace and I need to get more rest. With a bad knee and balance issues I have started using a hiking stick for long walks. I am forgetting names more often. But I am the lucky one. I do not have any life threatening diseases and am still able to keep moving—and blogging. But at age 82 being able to do any serious, high stress work is out of the question. Being the President of the United States? I don’t think so.

So what should happen next? It will take some time for leading Democrats to figure this out. But if Biden is going to step aside, it needs to happen soon. Trump right now is ahead in almost all the battleground states, and Republicans are euphoric. However, Biden shows no sign of throwing in the towel and reportedly gave an energized speech in Raleigh today to a crowd roaring their approval. Some will argue that there is still an opportunity for a better showing in a second debate.

But what about the stakes? If Trump were to get elected, democracy would be at risk for our country, and the damage he could do world-wide is unthinkable. Think Sixth Great Mass Extinction. It has already been 130 million years since the last one. These extinctions have occurred every 130-150 million years. Could we be next? Never have the stakes been higher. I don’t know if Biden read my November 2022 blog post, but he should, and he should follow my recommendation.  However, he does not have the luxury of time. It needs to happen now.

 

 

Fear of Flying

My last post warned the reader that I would write about my paying a price for gutting it out for the Davidson reunion. Rest assured that at last I am on the road to recovery and have enough energy to write about the follow-up story—getting down there and getting back.

The flight from Washington National Airport was par for the course. We waited in line for about a half hour to get to the security clearance. Embry cleared immediately. I failed, and if I wanted the matter cleared up, I was told to proceed upstairs to the security desk. Hey, no problem. Was this the third or fourth time in a row that I have not sailed through security clearance? In trying to get to Costa Rica it was my passport that was about to expire. In trying to get to Puerto Rica it was the eye test that I failed followed by a pat down to find the weapon hidden in my underwear. In both instances, we finally made it to the gate minutes before it closed. So I am used to this.

We hopped on the elevator to the special security desk, waited in line; and when we got to the security expert who asked me what day I was born, I told her that it was April 1,1942. She said that was the problem. My driver’s license showed the correct date, but the reservation showed May 1. This serious problem had to be cleared up. Embry chimed in, “It was my fault. I put in the wrong date. I will testify that April 1 is the correct date.” The security lady excused herself to confer with her supervisor. Several minutes later she returned and replied, “Ok we will let you go this time” and printed out a new boarding pass. “Do not let this happen again.”

Off we went back to the line for security, which was now almost twice as long and took about 45 minutes and then walked to the gate, which had to be at least a mile away, located at the opposite end of the terminal. Given my weak left knee and bad sense of balance, I now often use a hiking stick and move very slowly. We made it to the gate just before boarding closed.

The flight arrived in Charlotte on time, and we walked a considerable distance to the rental car area. The line for Dollar was short and we were able to make it to Davidson only a few minutes late for the class dinner at 6:30. I checked my pedometer on my iPhone. We had walked over 2.5 miles. I commented that since this experience now seemed to be standard, we should try to  get to the airport for the return flight at least three hours before departure time.

 We made  it to the airport for the return flight to Washington with over two hours to spare though we were not prepared for what would come next.

Something has terribly gone awry at the Charlotte Douglas International  Airport. Embry and I have traveled all over the world including to many third world countries. The Charlotte airport on the day we were there was about as crowded as any of the airports we have been in. Long lines were everywhere including the lines to the machines to get boarding passes, and the people mulling around  were so close together that it seemed like Grand Central Station at rush hour. Since Embry had not gotten a boarding pass online, she stood at a machine only to discover that all the machines were down, and anyone needing a boarding pass was directed to go to the customer service area, which we did. When we nudged our way though the crowds, we found ourselves at the end of a long line that did not appear to be moving. I did a quick body count and stopped counting when I reached over 100. There were only five or six customer service desks. I concluded there was no way that we could make it to the gate on time. Embry then had a brilliant idea—try the internet. She got online and happily reported that she had gotten the boarding passes, which were being emailed to our smart phones. She had already received hers and encouraged me to check my email.

“I don’t have my iPhone,” I reported.

“Of course you do, you are reading emails or checking the weather all the time.”

“Well, it is not in my pocket where I usually keep it, so I lost it.”

“Excuse me?”

“And it was practically brand new. It is probably in the rental car.”

With a horrified look on her face, Embry escorted me to the side of the huge ticketing area where there were two vacant seats and directed me to sit down. She placed her carry-on bag next to mine and with the authority that is often used by young parents with unruly small children, sternly ordered, “You sit here. Do not move. Guard the bags. I am headed to the car rental!” And off she charged. We still had almost an hour to make it to the gate.

I stared off into space observing the masses of people panicking because the boarding pass machines were down. It was at least a ten minute walk to the rental car return area and another ten minutes back plus Embry usually does not pay much attention to the kind of car we rent. I also recalled as we were returning our car, I had counted at least a dozen cars which had pulled in behind us and more were pouring in every minute. As we got out of our car the attendants were already driving the returned cars ahead of us off the lot. What were the chances that Embry could find our car, find my phone and get back to the terminal in time to make our flight? While we had almost an hour, I figured it would take that long just to retrieve the phone—if she could even find it. This time we were doomed.

Resigned, I continued to stare off into space. Then suddenly Embry appeared running  toward me waiving the iPhone.

“Got it! Let’s go!”

We had about 40 minutes.

As we were making our way to the security line, she said she remembered the color of the car was red and told the attendant about our problem. He directed her to another lot where she began opening the door of every red car and after the tenth or twelfth try spotted the phone on the front seat.  We got in a long line for security which thankfully was moving quickly, and we reached the attendant with about 30 minutes to spare. There was still a chance we could make it. Embry quickly passed and went into the bag screening area.

 I was rejected.

Embry looked back at me over her shoulder with a horrified look of disbelief. “Not again,” I could almost hear her saying.

The lady guard said, “I am sorry to report that you will not be allowed to pass through security. The machine has rejected your driver’s license. Unless you have valid identification like a passport, you are not flying.”

“What is wrong with my driver’s license?”

“I have no idea, but the machine has the last word.”

When I demanded that she call her supervisor, a tall skinny guy came over and examined my license. I then asked if he could look at my photo and confirm that I am who I say I am. He agreed that I was who I said I was but then said that it appeared that my driver’s license was being held together by scotch tape, which it was, but which made it impossible for the machine to read.

“But if you can confirm that I am who I say I am, why not just let me in?”

 He excused himself to find his supervisor. I could see Embry observing, impatiently looking at her watch.

 Now all of this was taking time. The line of well over 50 people behind me was becoming uneasy. One person shouted, “Let him pass or throw him out for god’s sakes!” Another screamed that he was missing his flight. In another couple of minutes the supervisor returned and said it was ok to let me through—this time. I stumbled toward the security area. We could still make it.

As I was waiting for my bags to come through the machine, a guard came over and informed me that he had to check me out. The machine showed that I was hiding a weapon in my groin area.

“Not again,” I said.

When he sternly replied, “Oh, so this has  happened before?” I came close to losing it.

“Look,” I said, “I am 82 years old. I walk with a cane as you can see. And when was the last time someone hijacked a plane anyway? And you are pulling me aside to check if I have a weapon hidden in my underwear? This is outrageous! Believe me, you will not find a weapon down there. Just ask my wife. She is the lady standing over there laughing.”

Not even so much as a smile. Just doing his job, he said, somewhat apologetically, as he patted me down to the amusement of a small crowd. We had about ten minutes to make it to the gate, but as luck would have it when we finally staggered into the boarding area about 10 minutes after the gates were supposed to be shut, the boarding had not even started. There was a 30-minute delay.

Just another day in flying the friendly skies.

I said to myself, “I-am-not-going-through-this-again-period.”

When we finally stumbled into our apartment in Washington later that day, I collapsed and have been in a recovery mode for almost a month. I am finally starting to feel almost normal. When I reported all this to a doctor friend—that at what I thought was the tail end of a bad cold, I had walked almost three miles for three straight days and endured humiliation and stress beyond description, all of  which caused a troubling relapse,  his reply was “duh.”

Then I realized that in a month we are flying to Paris for the Olympics.

Stay tuned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m Back!

On Tuesday, May 28 I came down with a very bad cold or something worse. Minor panic. In four days Embry and I were supposed to go to the 60th reunion of the Class of 1964 at Davidson College. How could I miss this occasion to reunite with old buddies, and miss the opportunity to stay at the home of one of our dearest friends? Plus, I had the honor of introducing one of the main speakers, also a close friend. I went to bed immediately, tested negative for covid, drank plenty of liquids, and took it day by day. On Friday morning I was starting to feel better. In discussing the situation with Embry, she made the comment that this could be my last chance to see my Davidson classmates, noting that there was no such thing as a 65th reunion at Davidson. Decision made: gut it out.

The reunion was all I could have hoped for. Five of my best friends—all former fraternity brothers– were there with their wives, along with an equal number of people I knew pretty well, which added together accounted for over half of the Class of 1964 who were present. When I attended Davidson, our class totaled 250. Some 86 of us have died, about 34 percent. About a dozen of the deceased I knew, some well. One was one of my best friends. Many others are probably struggling with serious health issues or have stopped traveling. Some have never attended any reunions. So, the 23 of us accounted for about 15 percent of the survivors. Sounds low to me, but we were told that our participation was par for the course for a 60th reunion.

The six couples sat together at our class dinner on Friday evening, attended on Saturday  the talk by the new college president (a 40-something male alum), who passed muster, and we all agreed was a good choice, toured the campus including the new, vast athletic complex, and went to a lakeside restaurant together for dinner. I managed to stumble through my introduction of friend and classmate, Bill Ferris, a famous folklorist, author, film maker and former head of the National Endowment of the Humanities, who made a terrific talk.

The pedometer on my iPhone showed we had walked over three miles on Saturday. Normally this would be a good thing since for the last several years I have been walking between 12 and 15 miles a week albeit at a pace which has been diminishing each year and this year with the aid of a hiking stick. But my body was telling me that this time, maybe not a good idea.

But Embry was right as she is most of the time.  The reunion experience was worth the effort and important. Hey, we are now old codgers. We members of the Davidson Class of 1964 will all be 82 before the year is out. In five more years when in theory the next reunion would happen, those of us who survive will be 87. But how many of us will still be kicking? If nothing else, class reunions underscore human mortality. That is just the way it is for us humans and for all plant and animal life on the planet Earth. The challenge for each of us living creatures is to make the best of our limited time on the stage.

While most of the reunion conversations could be construed to be small talk—“How’s the family, kids, grandkids?”—they are more than that. Something more important  happens at reunions . Reconnecting is what counts, and here is where we humans join the rest of the animal kingdom. Have you noticed how animals connect or reconnect with another of their kind? Dogs are the extreme example. Hardly ever do two dogs  pass each other without a brief smell of each other’s rear end followed by a wag of the tail. This is like saying, “OK, I remember you, you’re a friend,” or “Gee whiz, I would like to get know you better,” and then they move on. This is very important in what it means to be a dog. It is part of their DNA. It is what must give meaning to their lives. Well, we humans are not all that different. Just a kind greeting, a smile, handshake or brief hug reestablishes that connection with an old friend. You do not have to engage in a deep or lengthy discussion. Reconnecting is why reunions are so important. It is also part of our DNA.

So, despite not feeling so great, I am very glad we attended the 60th Davidson reunion, but I paid a price, and that will be the subject of the next blog post.